The Number & “Heat Map”

Posted on March 27, 2018 by The Weekly Commentary

THE NUMBERS

Sources: Index Returns: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized excluding dividends. Interest Rates: Federal Reserve, Freddie Mac

US ECONOMIC HEAT MAP

The health of the US economy is a key driver of long-term returns in the stock market. Below, we grade 5 key economic conditions that we believe are of particular importance to investors.

CONSUMER SPENDING	A+	Consumer spending is expected to strengthen as individuals with lower tax rates spend their windfalls.
FED POLICIES	C-	The Federal Reserve increased the Fed Funds Rate by 0.25% last week, and is expected to implement at least 2 more hikes this year. Rising interest rates tend to reduce economic growth potential and can lead to repricing of income producing assets.
BUSINESS PROFITABILITY	A-	4th quarter earnings season was stellar, with S&P profits growing at a fast pace. Q1 2018 earnings season starts in just a few short weeks.
EMPLOYMENT	A+	The unemployment rate currently stands at 4.1%, the lowest reading since 2000. The economy added 313,000 new jobs in February, a very strong number.
INFLATION	B	Inflation is often a sign of “tightening” in the economy, and can be a signal that growth is peaking. The inflation rate remains benign at this time, but we see the potential for an increase moving forward. This metric deserves our attention.
OTHER CONCERNS
INTERNATIONAL RISKS	5	The above ratings assume no international crisis. On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the highest level of crisis, we rate these international risks collectively as a 5. These risks deserve our ongoing attention.

The “Heat Map” is a subjective analysis based upon metrics that VNFA’s investment committee believes are important to financial markets and the economy. The “Heat Map” is designed for informational purposes only and is not intended for use as a basis for investment decisions.

The “Heat Map”

Posted on March 21, 2018 by The Weekly Commentary

Most of the time, the U.S. stock market looks to 3 factors (call them the “pillars” which support the stock market) to support its upward trend – let’s grade each of the pillars.

CONSUMER SPENDING: This grade is A+ (extremely favorable). Consumer spending is expected to strengthen as individuals with lower tax rates spend their windfalls.

THE FED AND ITS POLICIES: This factor is rated C- (Below average).

BUSINESS PROFITABILITY: This factor’s grade is A- (very favorable). The 4th quarter earnings season was stellar, with S&P profits growing at a fast pace.

OTHER CONCERNS: The “Heat Map” is indicating the U.S. stock market is in OK shape ASSUMING no international crisis. On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the highest level of crisis, I rate these international risks collectively as a 5. These risks deserve our ongoing attention.

The “Heat Map”

Posted on March 13, 2018 by The Weekly Commentary

Most of the time, the U.S. stock market looks to 3 factors (call them the “pillars” which support the stock market) to support its upward trend – let’s grade each of the pillars.

CONSUMER SPENDING: This grade is A+ (extremely favorable). Consumer spending is expected to strengthen as individuals with lower tax rates spend their windfalls.

THE FED AND ITS POLICIES: This factor is rated C- (Below average).

BUSINESS PROFITABILITY: This factor’s grade is A- (very favorable). The 4th quarter earnings season was stellar, with S&P profits growing at a fast pace.

OTHER CONCERNS: The “Heat Map” is indicating the U.S. stock market is in OK shape ASSUMING no international crisis. On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the highest level of crisis, we rate these international risks collectively as a 5. These risks deserve our ongoing attention.

The “Heat Map”

Posted on February 27, 2018 by The Weekly Commentary

Most of the time, the U.S. stock market looks to 3 factors (call them the “pillars” which support the stock market) to support its upward trend – let’s grade each of the pillars.

CONSUMER SPENDING: This grade is A+ (extremely favorable). Consumer spending is expected to strengthen as individuals with lower tax rates spend their windfalls.

THE FED AND ITS POLICIES: This factor is rated C- (Below average).

BUSINESS PROFITABILITY: This factor’s grade is A- (very favorable). Corporations are in the midst of releasing 4th quarter earnings. Earnings season has been stellar, with S&P profits growing at a fast pace.

OTHER CONCERNS: The “Heat Map” is indicating the U.S. stock market is in OK shape ASSUMING no international crisis. On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the highest level of crisis, we rate these international risks collectively as a 5. These risks deserve our ongoing attention.

The “Heat Map”

Posted on February 20, 2018 by The Weekly Commentary

Most of the time, the U.S. stock market looks to 3 factors (call them the “pillars” which support the stock market) to support its upward trend – let’s grade each of the pillars.

CONSUMER SPENDING: This grade is A+ (extremely favorable). Consumer spending is expected to strengthen as individuals with lower tax rates spend their windfalls.

THE FED AND ITS POLICIES: This factor is rated C- (Below average).

OTHER CONCERNS: The “Heat Map” is indicating the U.S. stock market is in OK shape ASSUMING no international crisis. On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the highest level of crisis, we rate these international risks collectively as a 5. These risks deserve our ongoing attention.

The “Heat Map”

Posted on February 12, 2018 by The Weekly Commentary

Most of the time, the U.S. stock market looks to 3 factors (call them the “pillars” which support the stock market) to support its upward trend – let’s grade each of the pillars.

CONSUMER SPENDING: This grade is A+ (extremely favorable). Consumer spending is expected to strengthen as individuals with lower tax rates spend their windfalls.

THE FED AND ITS POLICIES: This factor is rated C- (Below average).

OTHER CONCERNS: The “Heat Map” is indicating the U.S. stock market is in OK shape ASSUMING no international crisis. On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the highest level of crisis, we rate these international risks collectively as a 5. These risks deserve our ongoing attention.

The “Heat Map”

Posted on February 6, 2018 by The Weekly Commentary

Most of the time, the U.S. stock market looks to 3 factors (call them the “pillars” which support the stock market) to support its upward trend – let’s grade each of the pillars.

CONSUMER SPENDING: This grade is A+ (extremely favorable). Consumer spending is expected to strengthen as individuals with lower tax rates spend their windfalls.

THE FED AND ITS POLICIES: This factor is rated C- (Below average).

OTHER CONCERNS: The “Heat Map” is indicating the U.S. stock market is in OK shape ASSUMING no international crisis. On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the highest level of crisis, we rate these international risks collectively as a 5. These risks deserve our ongoing attention.

The “Heat Map”

Posted on January 30, 2018 by The Weekly Commentary

Most of the time, the U.S. stock market looks to 3 factors (call them the “pillars” which support the stock market) to support its upward trend – let’s grade each of the pillars.

CONSUMER SPENDING: This grade is increased to A+ (extremely favorable). Consumer spending grew at a 3.8% clip in the 4^th Quarter 2017. That could get even stronger if individuals with lower tax rates spend their windfalls.

THE FED AND ITS POLICIES: This factor is rated C- (Below average).

OTHER CONCERNS: The “Heat Map” is indicating the U.S. stock market is in OK shape ASSUMING no international crisis. On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the highest level of crisis, we rate these international risks collectively as a 5. These risks deserve our ongoing attention.

The “Heat Map”

Posted on January 22, 2018 by The Weekly Commentary

Most of the time, the U.S. stock market looks to 3 factors (call them the “pillars” which support the stock market) to support its upward trend – let’s grade each of the pillars.

CONSUMER SPENDING: This grade is an A- (favorable). Employees will see larger paychecks soon because of new, lower tax rates. Larger paychecks puts more money in consumers’ pockets; hence, more spending to help stimulate the economy.

THE FED AND ITS POLICIES: This factor is rated C- (Below average).

BUSINESS PROFITABILITY: This factor’s grade is A- (very favorable). Corporations are in the midst of releasing 4th quarter earnings. During the next two weeks, we will develop a sense of not only the 4^th quarter earnings but also how executives see the remainder of 2018.

OTHER CONCERNS: The “Heat Map” is indicating the U.S. stock market is in OK shape ASSUMING no international crisis. On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the highest level of crisis, we rate these international risks collectively as a 5. These risks deserve our ongoing attention.

The “Heat Map”

Posted on January 4, 2018 by The Weekly Commentary

Most of the time, the U.S. stock market looks to 3 factors (call them the “pillars” which support the stock market) to support its upward trend – let’s grade each of the pillars.

THE FED AND ITS POLICIES: This factor is rated C- (Below average).

BUSINESS PROFITABILITY: This factor’s grade is A- (very favorable).

OTHER CONCERNS: The “Heat Map” is indicating the U.S. stock market is in OK shape ASSUMING no international crisis. On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the highest level of crisis, we rate these international risks collectively as a 5. These risks deserve our ongoing attention.

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The Weekly Commentary

Observations of the current state of the stock and bond markets

Category Archives: The “Heat Map”

The Number & “Heat Map”

THE NUMBERS

US ECONOMIC HEAT MAP

The “Heat Map”

The “Heat Map”

The “Heat Map”

The “Heat Map”

The “Heat Map”

The “Heat Map”

The “Heat Map”

The “Heat Map”

The “Heat Map”