Most of the time the U.S. stock market looks to 3 factors (call them the “pillars” that support the stock market) to support its upward trend – let’s grade each of the pillars.
CONSUMER SPENDING: This grade is a B (favorable).
THE FED AND ITS POLICIES: We continue to grade this factor an A+ (extremely favorable) because the FED cannot do much more than it is doing to support the stock market and asset prices.
BUSINESS PROFITABILITY: This factor’s grade is a C (average).
OTHER CONCERNS: The “Heat Map” is indicating the U.S. stock market is in OK shape ASSUMING no international crisis. On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the highest level of crisis, we rate these international risks collectively as a 2, the same as last week. These risks deserve our ongoing attention.
Most of the time the U.S. stock market looks to 3 factors (call them the “pillars” that support the stock market) to support its upward trend – let’s grade each of the pillars.
CONSUMER SPENDING: This grade is a B (favorable).
THE FED AND ITS POLICIES: We continue to grade this factor an A+ (extremely favorable) because the FED cannot do much more than it is doing to support the stock market and asset prices.
BUSINESS PROFITABILITY: This factor’s grade is a C (average).
OTHER CONCERNS: The “Heat Map” is indicating the U.S. stock market is in OK shape ASSUMING no international crisis. On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the highest level of crisis, we rate these international risks collectively as a 2, the same as last week. These risks deserve our ongoing attention.
Most of the time the U.S. stock market looks to 3 factors (call them the “pillars” that support the stock market) to support its upward trend – let’s grade each of the pillars.
CONSUMER SPENDING: This grade is a B (favorable) due to the a slowdown in spending. It may be weather related. We will find out in the next 2 months.
THE FED AND ITS POLICIES: We continue to grade this factor an A+ (extremely favorable) because the FED cannot do much more than it is doing to support the stock market and asset prices.
BUSINESS PROFITABILITY: This factor’s grade is a C (average). With about 90% of S&P 500 index companies having reported first quarter earnings, the blended growth rate is 0.1%, better than expectations of negative 4.7% on March 31, according to FactSet’s John Butters. EPS growth is 7.7% without the energy sector.
OTHER CONCERNS: The “Heat Map” is indicating the U.S. stock market is in OK shape ASSUMING no international crisis. On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the highest level of crisis, we rate these international risks collectively as a 2, the same as last week. These risks deserve our ongoing attention.
Most of the time the U.S. stock market looks to 3 factors (call them the “pillars” that support the stock market) to support its upward trend – let’s grade each of the pillars.
CONSUMER SPENDING: This grade is reduced to a B (favorable) due to the a slowdown in spending. It may be weather related. We will find out in the next 2 months.
THE FED AND ITS POLICIES: We continue to grade this factor an A+ (extremely favorable) because the FED cannot do much more than it is doing to support the stock market and asset prices.
BUSINESS PROFITABILITY: This factor’s grade is a C (average). Early results of quarterly earnings are promising. Perhaps, 2015 will not be such an “average” year after all.
OTHER CONCERNS: The “Heat Map” is indicating the U.S. stock market is in OK shape ASSUMING no international crisis. On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the highest level of crisis, we rate these international risks collectively as a 2, the same as last week. These risks deserve our ongoing attention.
Most of the time the U.S. stock market looks to 3 factors (call them the “pillars” that support the stock market) to support its upward trend – let’s grade each of the pillars.
CONSUMER SPENDING: This grade is reduced to a B (favorable) due to a slowdown in spending. It may be weather related. We will find out in the next 3 months.
THE FED AND ITS POLICIES: We continue to grade this factor an A+ (extremely favorable) because the FED cannot do much more than it is doing to support the stock market and asset prices.
BUSINESS PROFITABILITY: This factor’s grade is a C (average). Many forecasters are starting to think earnings will be flat in 2015 thanks to the dollar’s potentially painful influence. Negative first quarter earnings warnings will begin soon and the March quarter at least will be terrible for energy companies, poor for most big companies, and weak in general.
OTHER CONCERNS: The “Heat Map” is indicating the U.S. stock market is in OK shape ASSUMING no international crisis. On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the highest level of crisis, we rate these international risks collectively as a 2, the same as last week. These risks deserve our ongoing attention.
Most of the time the U.S. stock market looks to 3 factors (call them the “pillars” that support the stock market) to support its upward trend – let’s grade each of the pillars.
CONSUMER SPENDING: This grade is an A (very favorable) due to the favorable effect of lower gasoline and heating oil prices.
THE FED AND ITS POLICIES: We continue to grade this factor an A+ (extremely favorable) because the FED cannot do much more than it is doing to support the stock market and asset prices. Now it seems investors are back to thinking the first hike will be in September and that there will be fewer this year. Indeed, the Fed’s own median Fed Funds rate projection for 2015’s end, released Wednesday, is about 0.625%, down from 1.12% in December. That brought the central bank closer to the more gradual trajectory that Fed Fund futures market has been predicting all along.
BUSINESS PROFITABILITY: This factor’s grade is a C (average). Many forecasters are starting to think earnings will be flat in 2015 thanks to the dollar’s potentially painful influence. Negative first quarter earnings warnings will begin soon and the March quarter at least will be terrible for energy companies, poor for most big companies, and weak in general.
OTHER CONCERNS: The “Heat Map” is indicating the U.S. stock market is in OK shape ASSUMING no international crisis. On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the highest level of crisis, we rate these international risks collectively as a 2, the same as last week. These risks deserve our ongoing attention.
Most of the time the U.S. stock market looks to 3 factors (call them the “pillars” that support the stock market) to support its upward trend – let’s grade each of the pillars.
CONSUMER SPENDING: This grade is an A (very favorable) due to the favorable effect of lower gasoline and heating oil prices.
THE FED AND ITS POLICIES: We continue to grade this factor an A+ (extremely favorable) because the FED cannot do much more than it is doing to support the stock market and asset prices.
BUSINESS PROFITABILITY: This factor’s grade has been reduced to a C (average). Many forecasters are starting to think earnings will be flat in 2015 thanks to the dollar’s potentially painful influence. Negative first quarter earnings warnings will begin soon and the March quarter at least will be terrible for energy companies, poor for most big companies, and weak in general.
OTHER CONCERNS: The “Heat Map” is indicating the U.S. stock market is in OK shape ASSUMING no international crisis. On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the highest level of crisis, we rate these international risks collectively as a 2, the same as last week. These risks deserve our ongoing attention.
Most of the time the U.S. stock market looks to 3 factors (call them the “pillars” that support the stock market) to support its upward trend – let’s grade each of the pillars.
CONSUMER SPENDING: This grade is an A (very favorable) due to the favorable effect of lower gasoline and heating oil prices.
THE FED AND ITS POLICIES: We continue to grade this factor an A+ (extremely favorable) because the FED cannot do much more than it is doing to support the stock market and asset prices.
BUSINESS PROFITABILITY: This factor’s grade is a B- (slightly above average).
OTHER CONCERNS: The “Heat Map” is indicating the U.S. stock market is in good shape ASSUMING no international crisis. The Greek government and the European officials have extended the loans with which Greece is saddled for 4 months which delays the hard choices which must be made. On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the highest level of crisis, we rate these collectively as a 2, a decrease from 3 last week. These risks deserve our ongoing attention.
Most of the time the U.S. stock market looks to 3 factors (call them the “pillars” that support the stock market) to support its upward trend – let’s grade each of the pillars.
CONSUMER SPENDING: This grade is an A (very favorable) due to the favorable effect of lower gasoline and heating oil prices.
THE FED AND ITS POLICIES: We continue to grade this factor an A+ (extremely favorable) because the FED cannot do much more than it is doing to support the stock market and asset prices.
BUSINESS PROFITABILITY: This factor’s grade is a B- (slightly above average).
OTHER CONCERNS: The “Heat Map” is indicating the U.S. stock market is in good shape ASSUMING no international crisis. The Greek government and the European officials have extended the loans with which Greece is saddled for 4 months which delays the hard choices which must be made. On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the highest level of crisis, we rate these collectively as a 2, a decrease from 3 last week. These risks deserve our ongoing attention.
Most of the time the U.S. stock market looks to 3 factors (call them the “pillars” that support the stock market) to support its upward trend – let’s grade each of the pillars.
CONSUMER SPENDING: This grade is an A (very favorable) due to the favorable effect of lower gasoline and heating oil prices.
THE FED AND ITS POLICIES: We continue to grade this factor an A+ (extremely favorable) because the FED cannot do much more than it is doing to support the stock market and asset prices.
BUSINESS PROFITABILITY: This factor’s grade is a B- (slightly above average).
OTHER CONCERNS: The “Heat Map” is indicating the U.S. stock market is in good shape ASSUMING no international crisis. We have added the heightened risk of turmoil in Europe from the recent Greek election. The Greeks, with help from Russia, may take a hard line against paying back the huge bail-out loans with which Greece is saddled. On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the highest level of crisis, we rate these collectively as a 3. These risks deserve our ongoing attention.
NOTE: there is no change from the prior week in the above ratings.
