by William Henderson, Vice President / Head of Investments
Question: What do you get when you mix $19 trillion of cash with a vaccine for COVID-19 and a divided U.S. Government? Answer: The potential for a seriously bullish market. M2 or the measure of the Money Supply of the United States currently stands at $19 trillion, up from $15 trillion in November 2019. M2 is the sum of all cash held by consumers and companies, plus money market accounts and bank deposits, and all “quasi-cash” balances such as Eurodollar deposits. M2 stands at a record level and represents the cash on sidelines ready to be put to work either by investing or spending. Cash balances are high as a direct result of COVID-19 restrictions and consumers who have simply not been able to spend. On Monday (November 16), Moderna Inc. announced that its vaccine for COVID-19 is 94.5% effective in primary testing. This announcement comes one week after Pfizer announced that their vaccine for COVID-19 was 90% effective in clinical trials. This is good news for consumers who have stayed on the sidelines, not spending or investing, due to fears of contracting the virus. A safe, effective and widely distributed vaccine for COVID-19 has the potential to release $19 trillion into the U.S. Economy. 

The U.S. Presidential Election is largely decided, although we are still awaiting a run-off for two U.S. Senate seats in Georgia. Currently, Real Clear Politics has both seats leaning Republican allowing for divided government, which the markets sometimes tend to favor. 

Last week’s market returns were mixed as investors slowly moved away from tech-heavy NASDAQ equities to more consumer related equities that make up the broader S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The week ending November 13, 2020, had the Dow Jones Industrial Average returning +4.1%, the S&P 500 Index +2.2 and the NASDAQ (-0.6%). After last week’s moves, year-to-date returns are positive for all three market averages with the Dow Jones at +3.3%, S&P 500 Index +11.0% and the NASDAQ at +31.8%. In a year like 2020, with all the uncertainty and cataclysmic events, to have all three major market averages in positive territory certainly points to the resiliency of the U.S. economy and the forward-looking nature of markets. We’ve said before that the market is far more efficient and forward thinking than investors may give it credit. 

The Federal Reserve remains committed to providing liquidity and stability to the markets by keeping short-term interest rates near zero. Conversely, yields on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond continue to move higher little by little each week. After bottoming in August 2020 at 0.51%, the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond stood at 0.92% as of November 16, 2020; but this level is dramatically lower than year-end 2019, when it stood at 1.92%. Watch for U.S. Treasury Bonds to fluctuate as the markets waffle between the news of higher infection rates of COVID-19 and further information about the release and distribution of an effective vaccine. The markets are digesting a lot of conflicting and impactful information all the while pointing to an eventual outcome of a massive release of cash into the economy. Timing remains uncertain but the outcome does not; which confirms the value of sound financial planning coupled with clear long-term thinking.

by William Henderson, Vice President / Head of Investments
Is it really possible that we are taking out two unknowns in one week? Joe Biden wins the Presidency and Pfizer announces a COVID-19 vaccine that is 90% effective in trials. Wow! We are left with the recession and its recovery and social unrest as our remaining unknown events in 2020. Last week, we saw impressive returns in the markets with all three major indices trading up on the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained +6.9%, the S&P 500 Index gained +7.3% and the NASDAQ gained +9.0%; putting their year-to-date returns respectively at: -0.75%, +8.6%, and +32.6%; proving once again that patience, long-term horizons and a sound financial plan are important.

Looking forward, we will most likely have a divided government and a strengthening economy as our tailwinds for the close of 2020 and even into 2021. Add to that a vaccine for COVID-19 that is 90% effective in clinical trials, continued monetary and potential fiscal stimulus and you see why the markets are rallying so strongly already this week.  Last week, Federal Reserve policymakers met on Wednesday and Thursday but announced no changes in monetary policy. In fact, the Fed’s post-meeting statement noted that the COVID-19 pandemic continues to meaningfully weigh on economic growth. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that the central bank still has monetary tools it can deploy to stimulate the economy, if needed. That said, the economy continued to add jobs at a better-than-expected pace with 638,000 new jobs added in October 2020; driving down the unemployment rate to 6.9% vs. 7.9% in September. The Fed was basing their statements and outlook on last week’s data and last week’s more or less global spike in COVID-19 cases.

  This week, Pfizer announced promising news about a potential vaccine for COVD-19. The market is seeing beyond the unknowns and is perhaps more efficient than investors realize. Although the presidential race is all but decided, a divided government remains a distinct possibility. The amount and timing of additional fiscal stimulus is still uncertain, what remains a certainty is the Fed keeping interest rates at near zero and with more arrows in their policy quiver. 

by William Henderson, Vice President / Head of Investments
That was quite a week. All three major market indices were down last week with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down -6.5% Standard & Poor’s 500 Index down – 5.6% and the NASDAQ down -5.5%. Technology led the averages lower even after four powerhouse firms beat earnings estimates: Apple, Amazon, Facebook and Google all topped analyst’s estimates but they also collectively spoke of lower guidance on revenues and slower growth going forward. Another piece of positive news that failed to give the markets a boost was the release of the 3rd Quarter year-over-year U.S. GDP at an astounding 32%. Offsetting the positives were across the board and around the world spikes in COVID-19 cases. Of course, we have the Presidential Election ending Tuesday evening. Finally, we will put to rest one of our unknowns for 2020.

Equity markets have been whipsawed this year, first staging the fastest the bear market on record in March before rallying to a staging a rebound not seen in 90 years. We have seen this volatility previously. Large swings were also a common feature of the 2008 financial crisis. In 2008, there were 42 trading days where the S&P 500 moved by more than 3%. So far in 2020, there have been 28 days where the S&P 500 has swung by 3% or more. Clearly, our collective unknowns that we frequently cite, continue to roil the markets.

The housing market continues to boom; and, by most measures, activity in the housing sector is running at its highest level since 2007. Thankfully, this is a rebound from Spring, when COVID-19 lockdowns all but halted activity in the sector. Record-low mortgage rates, demographic tailwinds, and a general movement out of urban locales into suburban regions continue to fuel the boom. The housing boom fuels related sector growth as well such as landscaping, appliances, carpentry, plumbing and HVAC, and household electronics. A strong housing market is an excellent base for a continued economic recovery into 2021 and beyond.  

With the markets being down so much last week, it is difficult to believe there are green shoots in our economy; however, looking at the fiscal and monetary stimulus alone, things are firmly in place for an economic rebound. Add to this any possibility of a COVID-19 vaccine in 2021 and the economy could see dramatic growth as the power of the consumer will finally be unleashed.  The election will decide the next President of the United States, but one person remains in office continuing to be extremely important to the financial markets – Jerome Powell. Mr. Powell is committed to keeping rates low for a long time. Low rates are fueling the housing boom (as mentioned above) allowing healthy firms to borrow at record-low levels, thereby improving their balance sheets and reducing the net interest expense of the federal debt.  

by William Henderson, Vice President / Head of Investments
Investors remained focused on renewed talks for a stimulus package – unlikely before next week’s Presidential Election, but hopefully before year-end. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin continue daily squabbling over the deal to provide fiscal assistance to Americans. This continued uncertainly made for a down week on Wall Street with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down -0.9% for the week, while the S&P 500 index was down -0.5%, and the Nasdaq down -1.1%. U.S. Treasury Bond yields continued their slow grind higher again last week and we saw the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond tick up 10 basis points to 0.84%. This move higher in bond yields added additional steepness to the yield curve. The 2s-10s spread (the difference between 2- year Treasury Notes and 10-year Treasury Bonds) widened to 69 basis points, the largest difference thus far in 2020. This is a clear indication that investors continue to bet on an economic recovery starting sooner and being stronger than expected. Year-to-date returns remain mixed with Dow Jones Industrial Average down -0.7%, while the S&P 500 index is up +7.3%, and the Nasdaq up a healthy +28.7%.

Traders and betting markets are still pointing to a Biden win on Election Day and some pointing to a “Blue Wave” victory next week. At the same time, according to Real Clear Politics, the Top Battleground States Average poll shows Biden ahead by +3.8 points; nearly identical to the spread Hillary Clinton had (+3.5 points) in 2016 vs. Donald Trump. The full U.S. Senate voted on Monday (10/25) to confirm Judge Amy Coney Barrett as a Justice of the U.S. Supreme Court. Both sides are pointing to the confirmation as a reason for larger turnout for the Presidential Election. Thankfully, the election is just a week away and that market unknown will fade away for a year or two. 

While we do not know the outcome yet of the election nor the markets’ reaction to that outcome, we are certain of a few things impacting investors. First, we know the Fed is committed to all monetary stimulus, including a zero-interest rate policy, needed to fuel the economic recovery. Second, we know that corporate earnings are improving, and corporate balance sheets remain healthy. And lastly, there is hope for a vaccine for the COVID-19 pandemic before year end. Stay focused on long-term returns and proper diversification rather than political noise and short-term market moves.

by William Henderson, Vice President / Head of Investments
As we move closer to year end, our four major uncertainties continue to drag on and on without an end in sight before the Presidential Election. Polls keep pointing to a clear Joe Biden win, but we saw the same polling data pointing to a Hillary win in 2016 which leaves us very skeptical of polls. Each time a vaccine for COVID-19 moves closer to release, cases spike as they have around the world this week with many countries including France, Italy and the UK showing very large one-day and one-week increases in virus outbreaks. Last week wrapped up testimonies for Amy Coney Barret and it looks as though a full vote in the U.S. Senate is possible this week. With the SCOTUS drama behind us, Washington can revisit the stimulus package that Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and House Speaker Nancey Pelosi have been playing volleyball with lately. Thankfully, the hearings for the SCOTUS appointment have been congenial when compared to previous hearings and this has put a nice damper on related protests and social unrest. We continue to see positive earnings releases and clear EPS beats versus Wall Street estimates. That tells us the recession is behind us and most analyst underestimated the pace at which U.S. companies will recover from the recession in the 1st and 2nd quarter. Further, company balance sheets remain healthy and borrowing rates and levels remain very favorable for Investment Grade and High Yield borrowers.

Unfortunately, the increase in COVID-19 infections could prompt government authorities to usher in new curbs on openings for such venues as bars, restaurants, and movie theatres.   The consumer remains key for a healthy and robust recovery. Online shopping, working from home, and virtual conferences/meetings continue to be the norm for everyday life around the world.  Last week’s Amazon Prime Day(s) was reported to set a new record for sales; but the online retailer was hesitant to release actual numbers. One number released was the $3.5 billion in sales for third-party sellers on Prime Day. This really shows the extended power of Amazon and how it helps small businesses around the country. The third-party business of Amazon is fueled by its dominant cloud services provider: Amazon Web Services (AWS).  

The FED remains on the sidelines with its full offering of weapons to fuel the economy and add critical liquidity to the markets. This one constant variable in a world of unknowns certainly adds a needed level of stability, which is clearly pushing the markets higher year-to-date. As of October 15, 2020, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was flat at -0.16%, but the S&P 500 Index was up +7.8% and the NASDAQ was up +30.6% for the same period; reminding us of the importance of diversification and exposure across the broader markets.

by William Henderson, Vice President / Head of Investments
With September in the books and the fourth quarter on everyone’s mind, the markets looked to the renewed stimulus talks and posted some of the best weekly returns in months. For the week ending October 9, 2020, Dow Jones Industrial Average increased +3.3%, the S&P 500 improved by +3.7% and the NASDAQ was up +4.6%. These weekly returns moved all three broad markets indices into positive territory for the full year of 2020; with the Dow at +0.2%, S&P 500, +7.6% and the NASDAQ up a stunning +29.1%. While equity returns have given investors something to smile about, bonds continue to offer nominal returns even in the face of a steepening yield curve. The two-year U. S Treasury Note moved two basis points higher in the week to 0.16% and the 10-year U.S. Treasury Note rose eight basis points to 0.79%. Low rates continue to push down mortgage rates which are fueling a strong rebound in new home sales. According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage for the week ending October 9, 2020 was a record low of 2.87%. With such low rates, buyer demand remains robust with first-time buyers coming into the market. The demand is particularly strong in more affordable regions of the country such as the Midwest. The binding theme on all three markets – equities, bonds and real estate – is the Fed’s unwavering goal of keeping rates lower for longer and maintaining a near Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP). 

We continue to have concerns around a COVID-19 fall resurgence in cases. Concurrently, there is global cooperation on finding a vaccine and hopes remain that the FDA will approve one this year, with global populations actually being vaccinated by Q3 2021. Uncertainty remains around the Presidential Election, and although national polls show Joe Biden ahead over President Trump, these same pollsters and pundits had Hillary Clinton ahead by nearly the same margin in 2016. The markets seem to be pricing in a mixed or balanced government after the election rather than a “blue” or “red” wave. A mixed government typically keeps a lid on drastic policy changes by either party regardless of who is in the White House. This week watch for a fight over media camera time between the SCOTUS’ Amy Coney Barret hearings, renewed stimulus talks among Speaker Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, and the back and forth between President Trump and former Vice President Biden. 

Staying the course and maintaining a disciplined investment policy with a keen eye towards diversification and risk management remains our policy at Valley National Financial Advisors. While major uncertainty remains in macro terms, forces exist within the economy (Fed, mortgage rates, market liquidity) that continue to fuel positive returns in the broader markets. 

View/Download PDF version of Q3 Commentary (or read text below)

Equities
Global equities showed well in Q3, as all three major U.S. indices, International, and Emerging Markets provided positive returns in the mid-to-high single digits. However, equities were ubiquitously down in September, led by the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index. After bidding up technology companies – who, in many cases, have benefitted from 2020’s societal changes – since March’s lows, investors reevaluated if such companies’ positive fundamental outlooks had been over-reflected in their stock prices. Nevertheless, the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all remain in the green year-to-date, as market participants shun the paltry yields available in fixed income and conclude that their best bets for satisfactory long-term returns reside in the equity markets. In light of the volatility that pervaded Q3’s close, I am reminded of the following words from John Pierpoint (J.P.) Morgan, the grandfather of what is now the largest bank in the world, when he was asked over 100 years ago what the stock market is going to do. “It will fluctuate”, he foretold.

Fixed Income
Interest rates remain historically low, as the 10-year treasury yield hovers around 0.70%. Interest rates are representative of investors’ opportunity cost; with rates as low as they are, there is incentive to pay higher prices for equities, as discussed above, because the investor forgoes little by passing on fixed income. The Federal Reserve has communicated that rates are likely to stay low until 2023, meaning that market participants can incorporate minimal opportunity cost into their expectations for the foreseeable future. As Warren Buffett once said, “Interest rates are like gravity on [equity] valuations.” The gravitational pull on the stock market is likely to remain historically weak until inflation sustains at over 2% – something that has not materialized since 2008’s financial crisis – and central banks around the globe are forced to intervene with monetary tightening.

Outlook
The marquee event over the next three months is, obviously, the U.S. Presidential Election. While the election has wide-ranging implications, of course, its greatest pertinence with respect to financial markets is that Congress is unlikely to pass additional stimulus until the Executive Chief perch is solidified.

Covid-19 continues to alter everyday life; however, the U.S. economy has demonstrated some signs of a V-shaped recovery. Most notably, for example, the unemployment rate has retreated to 7.9%; while this figure is still considerably above historical averages, it is worth remembering that in March and April, economists debated for how long unemployment would persist in the double-digits, specifically, whether the jobless rate would remain above 10% through 2020. Additionally, certain consumer trends have emerged stronger than most anyone expected when Covid-19 roiled the markets in March. For instance, several retailers reported all-time high sales metrics in Q2.

Multiple pharmaceutical companies, including Pfizer, Moderna, and AstraZeneca, continue their phase 3 vaccine trials. At this point, it appears probable that at least one vaccine will be granted FDA approval by year-end, or, at latest, by the end of Q1 2021, and that a method of inoculation will be available to the American public by the middle of next year.

While the global economy will not be unshackled from the pandemic’s recessionary forces in the near-term, risk assets are likely to remain buoyed by accommodative monetary policy and another round of fiscal support, the latter of which will likely come to fruition in early 2021. It is conceivable that, around the same time, a vaccine will be in production and dissemination, a combination that would certainly appear facilitative of robust economic and corporate performance. In all cases, the shrewdest investment strategy is that of adherence to one’s long-term plan and resistance of short-term maneuvers. 

VIDEO: Q3 2020 Market Commentary
Our CEO, Matt Petrozelli, introduces Bill Henderson, Head of Investments who offers a review of the third quarter, and economic outlook and perspective on long-term investing.
WATCH NOW

by William Henderson, Vice President / Head of Investments
Well, 2020 continues to shock and awe us and the markets. The news of President Trump and Melania Trump testing positive for COVD-19 certainly was news, and in an already packed wild news year. A Black Swan event is an event so rare, that the results cannot be modeled nor predicted. COVID-19 was our 2020 Black Swan event and thus far the markets have held up and the economy is coming back from an uncanny recession due to huge fiscal stimulus and massive monetary stimulus. The rule on Wall Street has always been “Don’t Fight the Fed,” and we have no plans on doing so. Fed Chairman, Jay Powell, has promised to do whatever it takes to keep the economy on the road to recovery and will use all tools in their monetary toolbox to do so. With that said, we remain positive on the U.S. Economy overall, and especially with a long-term view. There is a piece of framed artwork on the walls of the Valley National Financial Advisors office depicting the contributions of James Pierpont Morgan to the United States Economy in the 1800-1900s. I love this quote in the piece attributed to J. P. Morgan, “any person who is a bear on the future of the United States will surely go broke.”  

Although the news concerning President Trump affected Friday’s markets, all three market averages managed to end the week in positive territory. For the week that ended October 2, 2020, The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up +1.9%, the S&P 500 Index +1.8% and the NASDAQ +1.5%. Energy continued to be the worst performing sector while real estate, utilities, consumer discretionary, technology and financials all held up well. We had spells of good news in the economy. Unemployment fell by more than forecast, dropping -0.5% to 7.9%. Year-to-date returns remain mixed with the Dow (3.5%), S&P 500 +3.6% and the NASDAQ +23.4%. 

2020 will be remembered as one of the most difficult and tumultuous years in recent history for investing. October surprises impact markets and Black Swan events really impact markets but always over history, markets have recuperated. There have been four days in in 2020 where the S&P 500 Index fell by more than 5%: February 24 (-9.3%), March 9 (-5.3%), March 16 (-8.1%) and June 8 (-5.0%) and three days where the S&P 500 Index rose by more than 5%: March 23 (+10.9), April 6 (+8.0%) and June 1 (+5.1%). Just 7 days in the year gave so much volatility yet on a year-to-date basis the S&P 500 index is still up 3.6% as of October 2, 2020. Our investment thesis at VNFA remains – choose a clear and balanced investment plan, have a long-term view of your plan and allow us to monitor and limit your risk.

by William Henderson, Vice President / Head of Investments
Markets ended the week of September 25, 2020 in mixed territory with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down (1.8%), the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index down (0.60%) and the NASDAQ up 1.1%. While mixed markets are always confusing, it bears understanding why there is a divergence. Industrial companies are struggling, and we saw that with the Durable-Goods Orders number released last week by the Commerce Department, rising only 0.40% in August; which was much lower than economists’ predictions of 1.80%. Yet, technology companies continue to do well as online shopping, virtual connectivity and other e-commerce related equities helped push the NASDAQ higher. Wall Street and Main Street are seeing different things. 

The good-news, bad-news stories do not really mask the continued ongoing uncertainty impacting the economy. Few of our market disruption events have been quelled. COVID-19 pandemic is waffling between a vaccine and a spike; and which one will come first. The presidential election is no one’s guess. As of September 28, 2020, the top battleground state’s average according to Real Clear Politics shows Joe Biden winning by a thin 3.8 points. Is that enough to cover the “silent majority Trump vote?” The recession is lingering but good news abounds with record-low mortgage rates fueling a booming housing market. Last week, the Commerce Department said sales of new single-family homes rose 4.8% in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.01 million! August 2020 sales were 43% above the year-earlier level. Low rates continue to fuel mortgage refinancing as well. Social unrest and protests continue and could actually increase as the Senate moves ahead with the confirmation of Judge Amy Coney Barret to fill the SCOTUS seat vacated with the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg. The byproduct of the confirmation battle and the concomitant unrest is that any hope of a third round of fiscal stimulus gets tossed aside while both parties wrestle with the issue of the week instead. 

While the lack of further fiscal stimulus is a drag on the economy, a bright spot is the strength of the private sector and huge pent up cash reserves sitting in money market funds and bank deposits. Private sector cash holdings have surged during the pandemic. According to the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, the personal savings rate as a percent of disposable income was nearly 18% as of July 2020, a surge from January 2020’s level of 7.6%. Further, the sum of U.S. money market assets plus commercial bank deposits has grown by nearly $4 trillion, to $20 trillion, during the pandemic and now sits at more than 100% of GDP. This cash hoard can easily fill the void that a missing third fiscal stimulus package leaves. Being locked down as the U.S. consumer has been since March 2020, has allowed a massive buildup of ready cash and reserves, that once released, could fuel the economic rebound we need. Watch for cash to flow into the economy as each of our unknowns gets worked out or fizzles away. With the election just 36 days away, that unknown may become a known fairly soon. Lastly, Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, is scheduled to meet with Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin this week to continue discussions of a third fiscal stimulus package. We expect markets to continue to waffle, with pull backs and rallies each week because uncertainly is bad for traders and the markets and there is simply too much uncertainty going around these days. A long-term perspective must be taken in conjunction with a balanced, well-designed investment portfolio.

by William Henderson, Vice President / Head of Investments
For a week with a lot of big news events: super-successful IPO of Snowflake, Big-10 Football starting up again and the sad news of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg dying; the Dow Jones Industrial Average changed a whole 0.1% over the week ended September 18, 2020. That is not to say we didn’t have some big swings in the market during the week; and the broader markets did close down for the week with the S&P 500 (0.60%) and the Tech-Larded NASDAQ (0.60%). Year-to-date returns remain mixed running in the face of some truly epic headwinds with the DJIA (3.1%), the S&P 500 +2.8% and the NASDAQ +20.3%. The markets continue to hope for something beyond the Fed’s open spigot of free money and believe Washington will finally agree on the next round of fiscal stimulus. In that regard, watch for Washington to be solely focused this week on a battle to replace Ruth Bader Ginsburg on the U.S. Supreme Court. There was interesting news from the U.S Commerce Department on Friday in an order prohibiting certain transactions of two Chinese e-commerce giants, Tencent’s WeChat and ByteDance’s TikTok. This is all part of the continuing U.S./China trade negotiations. Oracle & Wal-Mart are still in talks to buy the U.S. operations of TikTok but have yet to resolve the final details; even after receiving approval from President Trump.

The Fed’s two-day policy meeting wrapped up on Wednesday with Fed Chair Jerome Powell revealing that policymakers expect official short-term rates to remain near 0% through 2023 and tempered their expectations for the size of the economic contraction in 2020 from 6.5% to 3.7%. Mr. Powell seemed concerned that the Fed’s massive monetary accommodation may be reaching its limits and instead began calling on Washington for a stronger fiscal boost to aid the economic recovery.

In more local news, Governor Wolf loosened restrictions on gatherings, specifically allowing restaurants to operate at 50% capacity rather than a paltry 25%. While not a full-blown removal of COVID-19 related restrictions, it does point to a lessening impact the global pandemic is having on the economy. A vaccine is still underway, with many global companies moving into a vaccine trial phase. Along with the explosion in virtual conferencing and working from home, cash usage is taking a dive while electronic payments are on the rise. According to an article in Barron’s this weekend, the volume of ATM withdrawals tumbled more than 12% in the second quarter. Companies that provide services allowing electronic payment transactions will continue to grow and benefit. As we saw the bank building replaced by the ATM, will we see the ATM replaced by the smartphone? Perhaps by the next generation.

It could be a tumultuous week with so much uncertainty abounding: 1) Washington (additional stimulus plan, replacing RBG), 2) Wall Street (TikTok, economic data, Fed) and 3) Main Street (Presidential Election, social unrest, COVID-19 resurgence in the fall). Remember, the markets hate uncertainty and we have a lot of that around these days. Keep a long-term view on your financial plans and try and look past the noise.