Category Archives: the numbers

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

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THE NUMBERS
Sources: Index Returns: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized. Interest Rates: Federal Reserve, Mortgage Bankers Association.

MARKET HEAT MAP
The health of the economy is a key driver of long-term returns in the stock market. Below, we assess the key economic conditions that we believe are of particular importance to investors.

US ECONOMY

CONSUMER HEALTH

POSITIVE

 July retail sales declined 1.1% vs. June 2021 but are 15.8% higher than July 2020.

CORPORATE EARNINGS

POSITIVE

 S&P 500 Q2 sales and earnings grew an astonishing 25% and 89%, respectively, when compared to the heavily depressed figures from Q2 2020.

EMPLOYMENT

POSITIVE

 In July, the U.S. economy added 943,000 jobs, bringing the unemployment rate down to 5.4%.

INFLATION

NEUTRAL

 Inflation remained at 5.4% year-over-year in July, the same reading as in June. Fed Chairman Jay Powell believes that the high inflation is transitory and will decelerate as global supply chain bottlenecks resolve.

FISCAL POLICY

POSITIVE

 The Senate passed a $1 trillion infrastructure package. The bill is expected to be voted on by The House by the end of this year.

MONETARY POLICY

POSITIVE

 The Federal Reserve has indicated that it does not plan to increase interest rates until 2023.

GLOBAL CONSIDERATIONS

GEOPOLITICAL RISKS

NEGATIVE

 The Taliban’s control in Afghanistan is causing uncertainty and unrest around the globe.

ECONOMIC RISKS

NEUTRAL

 With multiple vaccines in distribution and accommodative fiscal and monetary policies in place, 2021 is shaping up as one of the strongest economic years on record. The primary risk at present is that of persistent inflation which begets higher interest rates.

The “Heat Map” is a subjective analysis based upon metrics that VNFA’s investment committee believes are important to financial markets and the economy. The “Heat Map” is designed for informational purposes only and is not intended for use as a basis for investment decisions.

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

Posted on by

THE NUMBERS
Sources: Index Returns: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized. Interest Rates: Federal Reserve, Mortgage Bankers Association.

MARKET HEAT MAP
The health of the economy is a key driver of long-term returns in the stock market. Below, we assess the key economic conditions that we believe are of particular importance to investors.

US ECONOMY

CONSUMER HEALTH

POSITIVE

 July retail sales declined 1.1% vs. June 2021 but are 15.8% higher than July 2020.

CORPORATE EARNINGS

POSITIVE

 With more than 90% of S&P 500 constituents having reported Q2 results, sales and earnings growth are running at an astonishing 25% and 89% pace when compared to the heavily depressed figures from Q2 2020.

EMPLOYMENT

POSITIVE

 In July, the U.S. economy added 943,000 jobs, bringing the unemployment rate down to 5.4%.

INFLATION

NEUTRAL

 Inflation remained at 5.4% year-over-year in July, the same reading as June. Fed Chairman Jay Powell believes that the high inflation is transitory and will decelerate as global supply chain bottlenecks resolve.

FISCAL POLICY

POSITIVE

 The Senate passed a $1 trillion infrastructure package. The bill is expected to be voted on by The House by the end of this year.

MONETARY POLICY

POSITIVE

 The Federal Reserve has indicated that it does not plan to increase interest rates until 2023.

GLOBAL CONSIDERATIONS

GEOPOLITICAL RISKS

NEGATIVE

 The Taliban’s control in Afghanistan is causing uncertainty and unrest around the globe.

ECONOMIC RISKS

NEUTRAL

 With multiple vaccines in distribution and accommodative fiscal and monetary policies in place, 2021 is looking like one of the strongest economic years on record. The primary risk at present is that of persistent inflation which begets higher interest rates.

The “Heat Map” is a subjective analysis based upon metrics that VNFA’s investment committee believes are important to financial markets and the economy. The “Heat Map” is designed for informational purposes only and is not intended for use as a basis for investment decisions.

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

Posted on by

THE NUMBERS
Sources: Index Returns: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized. Interest Rates: Federal Reserve, Mortgage Bankers Association.

MARKET HEAT MAP
The health of the economy is a key driver of long-term returns in the stock market. Below, we assess the key economic conditions that we believe are of particular importance to investors.

US ECONOMY

CONSUMER HEALTH

POSITIVE

 Q2 U.S. GDP grew at a 6.5% annualized pace. A very strong number, historically speaking, but below the 8.5% expectation. A lack of inventories, resulting from a constrained global supply chain, reduced GDP by nearly $200 billion.

CORPORATE EARNINGS

POSITIVE

 With more than 90% of S&P 500 constituents having reported Q2 results, sales and earnings growth are running at an astonishing 25% and 89% pace when compared to the heavily depressed figures from Q2 2020.

EMPLOYMENT

POSITIVE

 In June, the U.S. economy added 943,000 jobs, bringing the unemployment rate down to 5.4%.

INFLATION

NEUTRAL

 Inflation remained at 5.4% year-over-year in July, the same reading as June. Fed Chairman Jay Powell believes that the high inflation is transitory and will decelerate as global supply chain bottlenecks resolve.

FISCAL POLICY

POSITIVE

 The Senate passed a $1 trillion infrastructure package. The bill is expected to be voted on by The House by the end of this year.

MONETARY POLICY

POSITIVE

 The Federal Reserve has indicated that it plans to hike rates twice in 2023. The monetary stance is accommodative in the near future; however, the rate at which the Fed raises rates likely depends on the persistence of inflation.

GLOBAL CONSIDERATIONS

GEOPOLITICAL RISKS

NEUTRAL

 There are few, if any, looming geopolitical risks that could upset the economic recovery.

ECONOMIC RISKS

NEUTRAL

 With multiple vaccines in distribution and accommodative fiscal and monetary policies in place, 2021 is looking like one of the strongest economic years on record. The primary risk at present is that of persistent inflation which begets higher interest rates.

The “Heat Map” is a subjective analysis based upon metrics that VNFA’s investment committee believes are important to financial markets and the economy. The “Heat Map” is designed for informational purposes only and is not intended for use as a basis for investment decisions.

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

Posted on by

THE NUMBERS
Sources: Index Returns: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized. Interest Rates: Federal Reserve, Mortgage Bankers Association.

MARKET HEAT MAP
The health of the economy is a key driver of long-term returns in the stock market. Below, we assess the key economic conditions that we believe are of particular importance to investors.

US ECONOMY

CONSUMER HEALTH

POSITIVE

 Q2 U.S. GDP grew at a 6.5% annualized pace – a very strong number, historically speaking but below the 8.5% expectation. A lack of inventories resulting from a constrained global supply chain reduced GDP by nearly $200 billion.

CORPORATE EARNINGS

POSITIVE

 With about 90% of S&P 500 constituents having reported Q2 results, sales and earnings growth are running at an astonishing 25% and 89% pace, respectively, when compared to the heavily depressed figures from Q2 2020.

EMPLOYMENT

POSITIVE

 In June, the U.S. economy added 943,000 jobs, bringing the unemployment rate down to 5.4%.

INFLATION

NEUTRAL

 Inflation accelerated to 5.4% in June. Jay Powell, Federal Reserve Chair, believes that the recent uptick in inflation is primarily attributable to global supply chain constraints, and that inflation will slow as such constraints resolve through the remainder of the year.

FISCAL POLICY

POSITIVE

 The Senate voted to advance the $550 billion bipartisan infrastructure bill, opening up the bill to debate and amendments.

MONETARY POLICY

POSITIVE

 The Federal Reserve indicated that it plans to hike rates twice in 2023. Previously, the Fed had suggested it would not raise rates until 2024. Nonetheless, the monetary posture remains accommodative.

GLOBAL CONSIDERATIONS

GEOPOLITICAL RISKS

NEUTRAL

 There are few, if any, looming geopolitical risks that could upset the economic recovery.

ECONOMIC RISKS

NEUTRAL

 With multiple vaccines in distribution and accommodative fiscal and monetary policies in place, 2021 is looking like one of the strongest economic years on record. The primary risk at present is that of persistent inflation which begets higher interest rates.

The “Heat Map” is a subjective analysis based upon metrics that VNFA’s investment committee believes are important to financial markets and the economy. The “Heat Map” is designed for informational purposes only and is not intended for use as a basis for investment decisions.

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

Posted on by

THE NUMBERS
Sources: Index Returns: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized. Interest Rates: Federal Reserve, Mortgage Bankers Association.

MARKET HEAT MAP
The health of the economy is a key driver of long-term returns in the stock market. Below, we assess the key economic conditions that we believe are of particular importance to investors.

US ECONOMY

CONSUMER HEALTH

POSITIVE

 Q2 U.S. GDP grew at a 6.5% annualized pace; a very strong number, historically speaking, but below the 8.5% expectation. A lack of inventories, resulting from a constrained global supply chain, reduced GDP by nearly $200 billion.

CORPORATE EARNINGS

POSITIVE

 With about half of S&P 500 constituents having reported Q2 results, sales and earnings growth are running at an astonishing 21% and 86% pace when compared to the heavily depressed figures from Q2 2020.

EMPLOYMENT

POSITIVE

 In June, the U.S. economy added 850,000 jobs, beating expectations handily. The unemployment rate is 5.9%, well within normal parameters.

INFLATION

NEUTRAL

 Inflation accelerated to 5.4% in June. Jay Powell, Federal Reserve Chair, believes that the recent uptick in inflation is primarily attributable to global supply chain constraints, and that inflation will slow as such constraints resolve through the remainder of the year.

FISCAL POLICY

POSITIVE

 The Senate voted to advance the $550 billion bipartisan infrastructure bill, opening up the bill to debate and amendments.

MONETARY POLICY

POSITIVE

 The Federal Reserve indicated that it plans to hike rates twice in 2023. Previously, the Fed had suggested it would not raise rates until 2024. Nonetheless, the monetary stance is accommodative in the near future.

GLOBAL CONSIDERATIONS

GEOPOLITICAL RISKS

NEUTRAL

 There are few, if any, looming geopolitical risks that could upset the economic recovery.

ECONOMIC RISKS

NEUTRAL

 With multiple vaccines in distribution and accommodative fiscal and monetary policies in place, 2021 is looking like one of the strongest economic years on record. The primary risk at present is that of persistent inflation which begets higher interest rates.

The “Heat Map” is a subjective analysis based upon metrics that VNFA’s investment committee believes are important to financial markets and the economy. The “Heat Map” is designed for informational purposes only and is not intended for use as a basis for investment decisions.

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

Posted on by

THE NUMBERS
Sources: Index Returns: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized. Interest Rates: Federal Reserve, Mortgage Bankers Association.

MARKET HEAT MAP
The health of the economy is a key driver of long-term returns in the stock market. Below, we assess the key economic conditions that we believe are of particular importance to investors.

US ECONOMY

CONSUMER HEALTH

POSITIVE

 The OECD forecasts that the global economy will grow 5.6% and 4.4% in 2021 and 2022, respectively.

CORPORATE EARNINGS

POSITIVE

 With about 1/4 of S&P 500 constituents having reported Q2 results, sales and earnings growth are running at an astonishing 21% and 74% pace when compared to the heavily depressed figures from Q2 2020.

EMPLOYMENT

POSITIVE

 In June, the U.S. economy added 850,000 jobs, beating expectations handily. The unemployment rate is 5.9%, well within normal parameters.

INFLATION

NEUTRAL

 Inflation accelerated to 5.4% in June. Jay Powell, Federal Reserve Chair, believes that the recent uptick in inflation is primarily attributable to global supply chain constraints, and that inflation will slow as such constraints resolve through the remainder of the year.

FISCAL POLICY

POSITIVE

 President Biden recently unveiled a stimulus package directed towards infrastructure that would total more than $2 trillion over eight years. President Biden is also considering a significant capital gains tax increase.

MONETARY POLICY

POSITIVE

 The Federal Reserve indicated this week that it plans to hike rates twice in 2023. Previously, the Fed had suggested it would not raise rates until 2024. Nonetheless, the monetary stance is accommodative in the near future.

GLOBAL CONSIDERATIONS

GEOPOLITICAL RISKS

NEUTRAL

 There are few, if any, looming geopolitical risks that could upset the economic recovery.

ECONOMIC RISKS

NEUTRAL

 With multiple vaccines in distribution and accommodative fiscal and monetary policies in place, 2021 may be one of the strongest economic years on record. If a risk is present, it may be that the economy will overheat, thereby leading to inflation and higher interest rates.

The “Heat Map” is a subjective analysis based upon metrics that VNFA’s investment committee believes are important to financial markets and the economy. The “Heat Map” is designed for informational purposes only and is not intended for use as a basis for investment decisions.

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

Posted on by

THE NUMBERS
Sources: Index Returns: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized. Interest Rates: Federal Reserve, Mortgage Bankers Association.

MARKET HEAT MAP
The health of the economy is a key driver of long-term returns in the stock market. Below, we assess the key economic conditions that we believe are of particular importance to investors.

US ECONOMY

CONSUMER HEALTH

POSITIVE

 The OECD forecasts that the global economy will grow 5.6% and 4.4% in 2021 and 2022, respectively.

CORPORATE EARNINGS

POSITIVE

 Q2 earnings season is just getting underway. Corporate results are likely to be very strong throughout 2021 on a “year-over-year” basis as companies compare their results to depressed 2020 numbers.

EMPLOYMENT

POSITIVE

 In June, the U.S. economy added 850,000 jobs, beating expectations handily. The unemployment rate is 5.9%, well within normal parameters.

INFLATION

NEUTRAL

 Inflation accelerated to 5.4% in June. Jay Powell, Federal Reserve Chair, believes that the recent uptick in inflation is primarily attributable to global supply chain constraints, and that inflation will slow as such constraints resolve through the remainder of the year.

FISCAL POLICY

POSITIVE

 President Biden recently unveiled a stimulus package directed towards infrastructure that would total more than $2 trillion over eight years. President Biden is also considering a significant capital gains tax increase.

MONETARY POLICY

POSITIVE

 The Federal Reserve indicated this week that it plans to hike rates twice in 2023. Previously, the Fed had suggested it would not raise rates until 2024. Nonetheless, the monetary stance is accommodative in the near future.

GLOBAL CONSIDERATIONS

GEOPOLITICAL RISKS

NEUTRAL

 There are few, if any, looming geopolitical risks that could upset the economic recovery.

ECONOMIC RISKS

NEUTRAL

 With multiple vaccines in distribution and accommodative fiscal and monetary policies in place, 2021 may be one of the strongest economic years on record. If a risk is present, it may be that the economy will overheat, thereby leading to inflation and higher interest rates.

The “Heat Map” is a subjective analysis based upon metrics that VNFA’s investment committee believes are important to financial markets and the economy. The “Heat Map” is designed for informational purposes only and is not intended for use as a basis for investment decisions.

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

Posted on by

THE NUMBERS
Sources: Index Returns: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized. Interest Rates: Federal Reserve, Mortgage Bankers Association.

MARKET HEAT MAP
The health of the economy is a key driver of long-term returns in the stock market. Below, we assess the key economic conditions that we believe are of particular importance to investors.

US ECONOMY

CONSUMER HEALTH

POSITIVE

 The OECD forecasts that the global economy will grow 5.6% and 4.4% in 2021 and 2022, respectively.

CORPORATE EARNINGS

POSITIVE

 S&P 500 Q1 sales and earnings growth were very strong. Corporate earnings are likely to remain strong throughout 2021 on a “year-over-year” basis as companies compare their results to depressed 2020 numbers.

EMPLOYMENT

POSITIVE

 In June, the U.S. economy added 850,000 jobs, beating expectations handily. The unemployment rate is 5.9%, well within normal parameters.

INFLATION

NEUTRAL

 Inflation cooled somewhat in May, decelerating to a 3.5% pace year-over-year, compared to 4.5% in April. Jay Powell, Federal Reserve Chair, believes that the recent uptick in inflation is primarily attributable to global supply chain constraints, and that inflation will slow as such constraints resolve through the remainder of the year.

FISCAL POLICY

POSITIVE

 President Biden recently unveiled a stimulus package directed towards infrastructure that would total more than $2 trillion over eight years. President Biden is also considering a significant capital gains tax increase.

MONETARY POLICY

POSITIVE

 The Federal Reserve indicated this week that it plans to hike rates twice in 2023. Previously, the Fed had suggested it would not raise rates until 2024. Nonetheless, the monetary stance is accommodative in the near future.

GLOBAL CONSIDERATIONS

GEOPOLITICAL RISKS

NEUTRAL

 There are few, if any, looming geopolitical risks that could upset the economic recovery.

ECONOMIC RISKS

NEUTRAL

 With multiple vaccines in distribution and accommodative fiscal and monetary policies in place, 2021 may be one of the strongest economic years on record. If a risk is present, it may be that the economy will overheat, thereby leading to inflation and higher interest rates.

The “Heat Map” is a subjective analysis based upon metrics that VNFA’s investment committee believes are important to financial markets and the economy. The “Heat Map” is designed for informational purposes only and is not intended for use as a basis for investment decisions.

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

Posted on by

THE NUMBERS
Sources: Index Returns: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized. Interest Rates: Federal Reserve, Mortgage Bankers Association.

MARKET HEAT MAP
The health of the economy is a key driver of long-term returns in the stock market. Below, we assess the key economic conditions that we believe are of particular importance to investors.

US ECONOMY

CONSUMER HEALTH

POSITIVE

 The OECD forecasts that the global economy will grow 5.6% and 4.4% in 2021 and 2022, respectively.

CORPORATE EARNINGS

POSITIVE

 S&P 500 Q1 sales and earnings growth were very strong. Corporate earnings are likely to remain strong throughout 2021 on a “year-over-year” basis as companies compare their results to depressed 2020 numbers.

EMPLOYMENT

POSITIVE

 In June, the U.S. economy added 850,000 jobs, beating expectations handily. The unemployment rate is 5.9%, well within normal parameters.

INFLATION

NEUTRAL

 Inflation cooled somewhat in May, decelerating to a 3.5% pace year-over-year, compared to 4.5% in April. Jay Powell, Federal Reserve Chair, believes that the recent uptick in inflation is prima rily attributable to global supply chain constraints, and that inflation will slow as such constraints resolve themselves through the remainder of the year.

FISCAL POLICY

POSITIVE

 President Biden recently unveiled a stimulus package directed towards infrastructure that would total more than $2 trillion over eight years. President Biden is also considering a significant capital gains tax increase.

MONETARY POLICY

POSITIVE

 The Federal Reserve indicated this week that it plans to hike rates twice in 2023. Previously, the Fed had suggested it would not raise rates until 2024. Nonetheless, the monetary stance is accommodative in the near future.

GLOBAL CONSIDERATIONS

GEOPOLITICAL RISKS

NEUTRAL

 There are few, if any, looming geopolitical risks that could upset the economic recovery.

ECONOMIC RISKS

NEUTRAL

 With multiple vaccines in distribution and accommodative fiscal and monetary policies in place, 2021 may be one of the strongest economic years on record. If a risk is present, it may be that the economy will overheat, thereby leading to inflation and higher interest rates.

The “Heat Map” is a subjective analysis based upon metrics that VNFA’s investment committee believes are important to financial markets and the economy. The “Heat Map” is designed for informational purposes only and is not intended for use as a basis for investment decisions.

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

Posted on by

THE NUMBERS
Sources: Index Returns: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized. Interest Rates: Federal Reserve, Mortgage Bankers Association.

MARKET HEAT MAP
The health of the economy is a key driver of long-term returns in the stock market. Below, we assess the key economic conditions that we believe are of particular importance to investors.

US ECONOMY

CONSUMER HEALTH

POSITIVE

 The OECD forecasts that the global economy will grow 5.6% and 4.4% in 2021 and 2022, respectively.

CORPORATE EARNINGS

POSITIVE

 S&P 500 Q1 sales and earnings growth were very strong. Corporate earnings are likely to remain strong throughout 2021 on a “year-over-year” basis as companies compare their results to depressed 2020 numbers.

EMPLOYMENT

POSITIVE

 In May, the unemployment rate declined to 5.8%, from 6.1% in April.

INFLATION

NEUTRAL

 Inflation was 4.5% in April. Inflation has generally been tame since the Great Financial Crisis, less than 2%; however, prices have been increasing in 2021 as a result of a tight labor market and supply chain constraints. The debate at-hand is whether recent inflation numbers are merely passing or here to stay.

FISCAL POLICY

POSITIVE

 President Biden recently unveiled a stimulus package directed towards infrastructure that would total more than $2 trillion over eight years. President Biden is also considering a significant capital gains tax increase.

MONETARY POLICY

POSITIVE

 The Federal Reserve indicated this week that it plans to hike rates twice in 2023. Previously, the Fed had suggested it would not raise rates until 2024. Nonetheless, the monetary stance is accommodative in the near future.

GLOBAL CONSIDERATIONS

GEOPOLITICAL RISKS

NEUTRAL

 There are few, if any, looming geopolitical risks that could upset the economic recovery.

ECONOMIC RISKS

NEUTRAL

 With multiple vaccines in distribution and highly accommodative fiscal and monetary policies in place, 2021 may be one of the strongest economic years on record. If a risk is present, it may be that the economy will overheat, thereby leading to inflation and higher interest rates.

The “Heat Map” is a subjective analysis based upon metrics that VNFA’s investment committee believes are important to financial markets and the economy. The “Heat Map” is designed for informational purposes only and is not intended for use as a basis for investment decisions.