Category Archives: the numbers

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

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THE NUMBERS
Sources: Index Returns: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized. Interest Rates: Federal Reserve, Mortgage Bankers Association.

MARKET HEAT MAP
The health of the economy is a key driver of long-term returns in the stock market. Below, we assess the key economic conditions that we believe are of particular importance to investors.

US ECONOMY

CONSUMER HEALTH

POSITIVE

 The OECD forecasts that the global economy will grow 5.6% and 4.4% in 2021 and 2022, respectively.

CORPORATE EARNINGS

POSITIVE

 S&P 500 Q1 sales and earnings growth were very strong. Corporate earnings are likely to remain strong throughout 2021 on a “year-over-year” basis as companies compare their results to depressed 2020 numbers.

EMPLOYMENT

POSITIVE

 In May, the unemployment rate declined to 5.8%, from 6.1% in April.

INFLATION

NEUTRAL

 Inflation was 4.5% in April. Inflation has generally been tame since the Great Financial Crisis, less than 2%; however, prices have been increasing in 2021 as a result of a tight labor market and supply chain constraints. The debate at-hand is whether recent inflation numbers are merely passing or here to stay.

FISCAL POLICY

POSITIVE

 President Biden recently unveiled a stimulus package directed towards infrastructure that would total more than $2 trillion over eight years. President Biden is also considering a significant capital gains tax increase.

MONETARY POLICY

POSITIVE

 The Federal Reserve indicated this week that it plans to hike rates twice in 2023. Previously, the Fed had suggested it would not raise rates until 2024. Nonetheless, the monetary stance is accommodative in the near future.

GLOBAL CONSIDERATIONS

GEOPOLITICAL RISKS

NEUTRAL

 There are few, if any, looming geopolitical risks that could upset the economic recovery.

ECONOMIC RISKS

NEUTRAL

 With multiple vaccines in distribution and highly accommodative fiscal and monetary policies in place, 2021 may be one of the strongest economic years on record. If a risk is present, it may be that the economy will overheat, thereby leading to inflation and higher interest rates.

The “Heat Map” is a subjective analysis based upon metrics that VNFA’s investment committee believes are important to financial markets and the economy. The “Heat Map” is designed for informational purposes only and is not intended for use as a basis for investment decisions.

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

Posted on by

THE NUMBERS
Sources: Index Returns: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized. Interest Rates: Federal Reserve, Mortgage Bankers Association.

MARKET HEAT MAP
The health of the economy is a key driver of long-term returns in the stock market. Below, we assess the key economic conditions that we believe are of particular importance to investors.

US ECONOMY

CONSUMER HEALTH

POSITIVE

 The OECD forecasts that the global economy will grow 5.6% and 4.4% in 2021 and 2022, respectively.

CORPORATE EARNINGS

POSITIVE

 S&P 500 Q1 sales and earnings growth were very strong. Corporate earnings are likely to remain strong throughout 2021 on a “year-over-year” basis as companies compare their results to depressed 2020 numbers.

EMPLOYMENT

POSITIVE

 In May, the unemployment rate declined to 5.8%, from 6.1% in April.

INFLATION

POSITIVE

 Inflation was 4.5% in April. The Fed plans to allow inflation to temporarily overshoot its 2% target such that the long-term average is 2%. Inflation has generally been tame since the Great Financial Crisis, less than 2%; however, prices have been increasing in 2021 as a result of a tight labor market and supply chain constraints.

FISCAL POLICY

POSITIVE

 President Biden recently unveiled a stimulus package directed towards infrastructure that would total more than $2 trillion over eight years. President Biden is also considering a significant capital gains tax increase.

MONETARY POLICY

VERY POSITIVE

 The Federal Reserve continues to indicate that the monetary environment will remain accommodative for the foreseeable future.

GLOBAL CONSIDERATIONS

GEOPOLITICAL RISKS

NEUTRAL

 There are few, if any, looming geopolitical risks that could upset the economic recovery.

ECONOMIC RISKS

NEUTRAL

 With multiple vaccines in distribution and highly accommodative fiscal and monetary policies in place, 2021 may be one of the strongest economic years on record. If a risk is present, it may be that the economy will overheat, thereby leading to inflation and higher interest rates.

The “Heat Map” is a subjective analysis based upon metrics that VNFA’s investment committee believes are important to financial markets and the economy. The “Heat Map” is designed for informational purposes only and is not intended for use as a basis for investment decisions.

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

Posted on by

THE NUMBERS
Sources: Index Returns: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized. Interest Rates: Federal Reserve, Mortgage Bankers Association.

MARKET HEAT MAP
The health of the economy is a key driver of long-term returns in the stock market. Below, we assess the key economic conditions that we believe are of particular importance to investors.

US ECONOMY

CONSUMER HEALTH

POSITIVE

 The economy expanded at a 6.4% annualized pace in Q1. At the current rate, U.S. GDP will return to pre-COVID levels by midyear.

CORPORATE EARNINGS

POSITIVE

 S&P 500 Q1 sales and earnings growth were very strong.

EMPLOYMENT

POSITIVE

 The unemployment rate increased to 6.1% in April, from 6% in March.

INFLATION

POSITIVE

 Inflation was 4.5% in April. The Fed plans to allow inflation to temporarily overshoot its 2% target such that the long-term average is 2%. Inflation has generally been tame since the Great Financial Crisis, less than 2%.

FISCAL POLICY

POSITIVE

 President Biden recently unveiled a stimulus package directed towards infrastructure that would total more than $2 trillion over eight years. President Biden is also considering a significant capital gains tax increase.

MONETARY POLICY

VERY POSITIVE

 The Federal Reserve continues to indicate that the monetary environment will remain very accommodative for the foreseeable future.

GLOBAL CONSIDERATIONS

GEOPOLITICAL RISKS

NEUTRAL

 There are few, if any, looming geopolitical risks that could upset the economic recovery.

ECONOMIC RISKS

NEUTRAL

 With multiple vaccines in distribution and highly accommodative fiscal and monetary policies in place, 2021 may be one of the strongest economic years on record.

The “Heat Map” is a subjective analysis based upon metrics that VNFA’s investment committee believes are important to financial markets and the economy. The “Heat Map” is designed for informational purposes only and is not intended for use as a basis for investment decisions.

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

Posted on by

THE NUMBERS
Sources: Index Returns: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized. Interest Rates: Federal Reserve, Mortgage Bankers Association.

MARKET HEAT MAP
The health of the economy is a key driver of long-term returns in the stock market. Below, we assess the key economic conditions that we believe are of particular importance to investors.

US ECONOMY

CONSUMER HEALTH

POSITIVE

 The economy expanded at a 6.4% annualized pace in Q1. At the current rate, U.S. GDP will return to pre-COVID levels by midyear.

CORPORATE EARNINGS

POSITIVE

 S&P 500 Q1 sales and earnings growth have come in at 9% and 45%, respectively, representing extremely strong results.

EMPLOYMENT

POSITIVE

 The unemployment rate increased to 6.1% in April, from 6% in March.

INFLATION

POSITIVE

 Inflation was 4.5% in April. The Fed plans to allow inflation to temporarily overshoot its 2% target such that the long-term average is 2%. Inflation has generally been tame since the Great Financial Crisis, less than 2%.

FISCAL POLICY

POSITIVE

 President Biden recently unveiled a stimulus package directed towards infrastructure that would total more than $2 trillion over eight years. President Biden is also considering a significant capital gains tax increase.

MONETARY POLICY

VERY POSITIVE

 The Federal Reserve continues to indicate that the monetary environment will remain very accommodative for the foreseeable future.

GLOBAL CONSIDERATIONS

GEOPOLITICAL RISKS

NEUTRAL

 There are few, if any, looming geopolitical risks that could upset the economic recovery.

ECONOMIC RISKS

NEUTRAL

 With multiple vaccines in distribution and highly accommodative fiscal and monetary policies in place, 2021 may be one of the strongest economic years on record.

The “Heat Map” is a subjective analysis based upon metrics that VNFA’s investment committee believes are important to financial markets and the economy. The “Heat Map” is designed for informational purposes only and is not intended for use as a basis for investment decisions.

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

Posted on by

THE NUMBERS
Sources: Index Returns: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized. Interest Rates: Federal Reserve, Mortgage Bankers Association.

MARKET HEAT MAP
The health of the economy is a key driver of long-term returns in the stock market. Below, we assess the key economic conditions that we believe are of particular importance to investors.

US ECONOMY

CONSUMER HEALTH

POSITIVE

 The economy expanded at a 6.4% annualized pace in Q1. At the current rate, U.S. GDP will return to pre-COVID levels by midyear.

CORPORATE EARNINGS

POSITIVE

 S&P 500 Q1 sales and earnings growth have come in at 9% and 45%, respectively, representing extremely strong results.

EMPLOYMENT

POSITIVE

 The unemployment rate increased to 6.1% in April, from 6% in March.

INFLATION

POSITIVE

 Inflation was 4.5% in April. The Fed plans to allow inflation to temporarily overshoot its 2% target such that the long-term average is 2%. Inflation has generally been tame since the Great Financial Crisis, less than 2%.

FISCAL POLICY

POSITIVE

 President Biden recently unveiled a stimulus package directed towards infrastructure that would total more than $2 trillion over eight years. President Biden is also considering a significant capital gains tax increase.

MONETARY POLICY

VERY POSITIVE

 The Federal Reserve continues to indicate that the monetary environment will remain very accommodative for the foreseeable future.

GLOBAL CONSIDERATIONS

GEOPOLITICAL RISKS

NEUTRAL

 There are few, if any, looming geopolitical risks that could upset the economic recovery.

ECONOMIC RISKS

NEUTRAL

 With multiple vaccines in distribution and highly accommodative fiscal and monetary policies in place, 2021 may be one of the strongest economic years on record.

The “Heat Map” is a subjective analysis based upon metrics that VNFA’s investment committee believes are important to financial markets and the economy. The “Heat Map” is designed for informational purposes only and is not intended for use as a basis for investment decisions.

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

Posted on by

THE NUMBERS
Sources: Index Returns: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized. Interest Rates: Federal Reserve, Mortgage Bankers Association.

MARKET HEAT MAP
The health of the economy is a key driver of long-term returns in the stock market. Below, we assess the key economic conditions that we believe are of particular importance to investors.

US ECONOMY

CONSUMER HEALTH

POSITIVE

 The economy expanded at a 6.4% annualized pace in Q1. At the current rate, U.S. GDP will return to pre-COVID levels by mid year.

CORPORATE EARNINGS

POSITIVE

 S&P 500 Q1 sales and earnings growth have come in at 9% and 45%, respectively, representing extremely strong results.

EMPLOYMENT

POSITIVE

 The unemployment rate increased to 6.1% in April, from 6% in March.

INFLATION

POSITIVE

 Inflation was 4.5% in April. The Fed plans to allow inflation to temporarily overshoot its 2% target such that the long-term average is 2%. Inflation has generally been tame since the Great Financial Crisis, less than 2%.

FISCAL POLICY

POSITIVE

 President Biden recently unveiled a stimulus package directed towards infrastructure that would total more than $2 trillion over eight years. President Biden is also considering a significant capital gains tax increase.

MONETARY POLICY

VERY POSITIVE

 The Federal Reserve continues to indicate that the monetary environment will remain very accommodative for the foreseeable future.

GLOBAL CONSIDERATIONS

GEOPOLITICAL RISKS

NEUTRAL

 There are few, if any, looming geopolitical risks that could upset the economic recovery.

ECONOMIC RISKS

NEUTRAL

 With multiple vaccines in distribution and highly accommodative fiscal and monetary policies in place, 2021 may be one of the strongest economic years on record.

The “Heat Map” is a subjective analysis based upon metrics that VNFA’s investment committee believes are important to financial markets and the economy. The “Heat Map” is designed for informational purposes only and is not intended for use as a basis for investment decisions.

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

Posted on by

THE NUMBERS
Sources: Index Returns: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized. Interest Rates: Federal Reserve, Mortgage Bankers Association.

MARKET HEAT MAP
The health of the economy is a key driver of long-term returns in the stock market. Below, we assess the key economic conditions that we believe are of particular importance to investors.

US ECONOMY

CONSUMER HEALTH

POSITIVE

 The economy expanded at a 6.4% annualized pace in Q1. At the current rate, U.S. GDP will return to pre-COVID levels by midyear.

CORPORATE EARNINGS

POSITIVE

 With over half of S&P constituents having reported Q1 earnings, sales and earnings growth have come in at 9% and 45%, respectively, representing extremely strong results.

EMPLOYMENT

POSITIVE

 The unemployment rate declined to 6% in March, from 6.2% in February

INFLATION

POSITIVE

 Inflation was 2.6% in March. The Fed plans to allow inflation to temporarily overshoot its 2% target such that the long-term average is 2%. Inflation has generally been tame since the Great Financial Crisis, less than 2%.

FISCAL POLICY

POSITIVE

 President Biden recently unveiled a stimulus package directed towards infrastructure that would total more than $2 trillion over eight years. President Biden is also considering a significant capital gains tax increase.

MONETARY POLICY

VERY POSITIVE

 The Federal Reserve continues to indicate that the monetary environment will remain very accommodative for the foreseeable future.

GLOBAL CONSIDERATIONS

GEOPOLITICAL RISKS

NEUTRAL

 There are few, if any, looming geopolitical risks that could upset the economic recovery.

ECONOMIC RISKS

NEUTRAL

 With multiple vaccines in distribution and highly accommodative fiscal and monetary policies in place, 2021 may be one of the strongest economic years on record.

The “Heat Map” is a subjective analysis based upon metrics that VNFA’s investment committee believes are important to financial markets and the economy. The “Heat Map” is designed for informational purposes only and is not intended for use as a basis for investment decisions.

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

Posted on by

THE NUMBERS
Sources: Index Returns: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized. Interest Rates: Federal Reserve, Mortgage Bankers Association.

MARKET HEAT MAP
The health of the economy is a key driver of long-term returns in the stock market. Below, we assess the key economic conditions that we believe are of particular importance to investors.

US ECONOMY

CONSUMER HEALTH

POSITIVE

 Retail sales grew nearly 10%, month-over-month, in March.

CORPORATE EARNINGS

POSITIVE

 Just about 10% of S&P 500 constituents have reported Q1 earnings, however, the early results are encouraging, as sales and earnings growth has come in at 7% and 30%, respectively.

EMPLOYMENT

NEUTRAL

 The unemployment rate declined to 6% in March, from 6.2% in February.

INFLATION

POSITIVE

 Inflation was 2.6% in March. The Fed plans to allow inflation to temporarily overshoot its 2% target such that the long-term average is 2%. Inflation has generally been tame since the Great Financial Crisis, less than 2%.

FISCAL POLICY

POSITIVE

 President Biden recently unveiled a stimulus package directed towards infrastructure that would total more than $2 trillion over eight years. President Biden is also considering a significant capital gains tax increase.

MONETARY POLICY

VERY POSITIVE

 The Federal Reserve continues to indicate that the monetary environment will remain very accommodative for the foreseeable future.

GLOBAL CONSIDERATIONS

GEOPOLITICAL RISKS

NEUTRAL

 There are few, if any, looming geopolitical risks that could upset the economic recovery.

ECONOMIC RISKS

NEUTRAL

 With multiple vaccines in distribution and highly accommodative fiscal and monetary policies in place, 2021 may be one of the strongest economic years on record.

The “Heat Map” is a subjective analysis based upon metrics that VNFA’s investment committee believes are important to financial markets and the economy. The “Heat Map” is designed for informational purposes only and is not intended for use as a basis for investment decisions.

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

Posted on by

THE NUMBERS
Sources: Index Returns: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized. Interest Rates: Federal Reserve, Mortgage Bankers Association.

MARKET HEAT MAP
The health of the economy is a key driver of long-term returns in the stock market. Below, we assess the key economic conditions that we believe are of particular importance to investors.

US ECONOMY

CONSUMER HEALTH

POSITIVE

 Retail sales grew nearly 10%, month-over-month, in March.

CORPORATE EARNINGS

POSITIVE

 Just about 10% of S&P 500 constituents have reported Q1 earnings, however, the early results are encouraging, as sales and earnings growth has come in at 7% and 30%, respectively.

EMPLOYMENT

NEUTRAL

 The unemployment rate declined to 6% in March, from 6.2% in February.

INFLATION

POSITIVE

 Inflation was 2.6% in March. The Fed plans to allow inflation to temporarily overshoot its 2% target such that the long-term average is 2%. Inflation has generally been tame since the Great Financial Crisis, less than 2%.

FISCAL POLICY

POSITIVE

 President Biden recently unveiled a stimulus package directed towards infrastructure that would total more than $2 trillion over eight years.

MONETARY POLICY

VERY POSITIVE

 The Federal Reserve continues to indicate that the monetary environment will remain very accommodative for the foreseeable future.

GLOBAL CONSIDERATIONS

GEOPOLITICAL RISKS

NEUTRAL

 There are few, if any, looming geopolitical risks that could upset the economic recovery.

ECONOMIC RISKS

NEUTRAL

 With multiple vaccines in distribution and highly accommodative fiscal and monetary policies in place, 2021 may be one of the strongest economic years on record.

The “Heat Map” is a subjective analysis based upon metrics that VNFA’s investment committee believes are important to financial markets and the economy. The “Heat Map” is designed for informational purposes only and is not intended for use as a basis for investment decisions.

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

Posted on by

THE NUMBERS
Sources: Index Returns: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized. Interest Rates: Federal Reserve, Mortgage Bankers Association.

MARKET HEAT MAP
The health of the economy is a key driver of long-term returns in the stock market. Below, we assess the key economic conditions that we believe are of particular importance to investors.

US ECONOMY

CONSUMER HEALTH

POSITIVE

 Consumer confidence has increased meaningfully over the last month as vaccine distribution has accelerated.

CORPORATE EARNINGS

POSITIVE

 S&P 500 Q1 earnings are expected to be up greater than 20%, year-over-year. Earnings season begins in a couple of weeks.

EMPLOYMENT

NEUTRAL

 The unemployment rate declined to 6% in March, from 6.2% in February.

INFLATION

POSITIVE

 The Fed plans to allow inflation to temporarily overshoot its 2% target such that the long-term average is 2%. Inflation has been tame since the Great Financial Crisis, less than 2%.

FISCAL POLICY

POSITIVE

 President Biden recently unveiled a stimulus package directed towards infrastructure that would total more than $2 trillion over eight years.

MONETARY POLICY

VERY POSITIVE

 The Federal Reserve continues to indicate that the monetary environment will remain very accommodative for the foreseeable future.

GLOBAL CONSIDERATIONS

GEOPOLITICAL RISKS

NEUTRAL

 There are few, if any, looming geopolitical risks that could upset the economic recovery.

ECONOMIC RISKS

NEUTRAL

 With multiple vaccines in distribution and highly accommodative fiscal and monetary policies in place, 2021 may be one of the strongest economic years on record.

The “Heat Map” is a subjective analysis based upon metrics that VNFA’s investment committee believes are important to financial markets and the economy. The “Heat Map” is designed for informational purposes only and is not intended for use as a basis for investment decisions.