Personal Notes

I am happy to announce that my older daughter Erika
Riddle Petrozelli,
CPA, has joined the staff of Lehigh Valley Community
Foundation as the Director of Donor Services. 
At Lehigh Valley Community Foundation she will focus on maintaining and
expanding philanthropic relationships for the Foundation.

Prior to joining the Foundation, Erika was Vice
President of Investor Relations at Magnitude Capital, LLC, a fund of hedge
funds based in New York City.  In this
role, she was responsible for client service and content management for the
firm’s global investor base.  Erika and
her husband Matt presently reside in Saucon Valley.  For more information about the Foundation,
click:  http://www.lehighvalleyfoundation.org/


The Markets This Week


Another Friday fade wasn’t enough last week to reverse the
market’s momentum, as stocks held on to a 1% gain for the five-day stretch,
despite slipping in the final session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
finished the week slightly below a new record high reached Wednesday. As has
been the case numerous times in the recent past, stocks fell Friday and
investors sold down some positions ahead of a weekend of potentially renewed
geopolitical tension.


Despite the release of mostly positive economic data, particularly
on Friday, traders say that escalating tensions in Ukraine are causing
investors to hesitate. In recent days, insurgents reportedly have shot down
Ukrainian helicopters, and Russia warned Ukraine Friday of “catastrophic
consequences” unless it halted a military operation against pro-Russian
insurgents in the eastern part of the country.


During a week of low trading volume, the Dow finished up 0.9%,
or 151 points, to 16,512.89. On Wednesday, it hit an all-time high of
16,580.84. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index increased nearly 18 to 1881.14.
The Nasdaq Composite index added 48, or 1.2%, to 4123.90.


Friday, the Labor Department said American job growth in April
was the biggest in more than two years. At the same time, the unemployment rate
fell to 6.3% last month from 6.7% in March, a low not seen since the bad old
days of September 2008. Payrolls grew by 288,000 from March and trounced
expectations of about 210,000 to 220,000. There was some confusion in equity
markets caused by the bond market’s rise in the face of Friday’s strong jobs
report. Some argued that the data below the headline numbers, such as a decline
in the participation rate, weren’t as good.


The problems in Ukraine “seem to be accelerating from
rhetoric to reality,” says Jason Weisberg, a partner at Seaport
Securities. That seemed to spook investors Friday. Troops are on the move,
aircraft have been shot down, and suddenly things have worsened, he says.


“It seems like on every Friday since mid-February there has
been a partial or full selloff,” says one investment strategist. That
suggests traders are unwilling to hold stocks during the weekend. If Ukraine
weren’t an issue, bond yields would have crashed through 3% instead of falling,
as they did Friday. (Bond prices move inversely to yields.)


Stock investors have to be wondering about a clarification
here.  Maybe the Ukraine issue will fade
in the face of more good news on the economic front, but it’s hard to see how
the situation will improve.


The data, at least, were good, says Michael Shaoul, chairman of
Marketfield Asset Management. The April figures are strong enough to silence
fears about the economy’s weakness in January and February. “There’s no
sense that the economy is decelerating,” he says.

(Source: Barrons Online).


Personal Notes

My income tax return
preparation business is 37 years old (since 1977).  I recall the chatter surrounding the 1986 Tax
Reform Act which overhauled and simplified the tax code.  Experts predicted more people would prepare
their own taxes and there would be a significant drop in the need for tax
professionals.  Well, that never
occurred.  Instead, Congress and state lawmakers
added more twists and turns to the tax code to either clarify existing law or
to create more law – mostly to satisfy special interest groups.  Each new president promises tax
simplification. Proposals fly for a flat tax, a consumption tax, a fair tax—and
they’ve all died sad little deaths in Congress. 
And, to top it off the states have joined in to create a second layer of
complexity involving multi-state returns. 
In Pennsylvania, the local returns sometimes cause even more
complications.  Oh, don’t forget about
the complexity of the Affordable Care Act (aka ObamaCare).  Talk about job security!

Personal Notes

Finally, winter is
over!  How do I know for sure?  Baseball starts this week.

I am a big fan of
the Pittsburgh Pirates.  Last year the
Pirates had their first winning season in 21 years, made the play-offs, and
came very close to defeating the St Louis Cardinals in the divisional match-up.
I have high hopes of another winning season although my hopes have been
tempered because Pittsburgh lost 3 veteran players and one pitching ace to the
free agency market.  I suspect the
Pirates have a very good starting pitching rotation and one of the best bull
pens in the Major League.  Pitching could
make the difference!

Personal Notes

One of my personal goals is to do what I can to
attract local, Lehigh Valley based talent and keep that talent in the Lehigh
Valley. 

With that objective in mind, we are actively seeking
to hire a select group of entry level professionals from top university
programs and integrate them into Valley National’s expanding “one-stop”
financial services business model. We are looking specifically for individuals
who have a strong desire to stay in the Lehigh Valley area and establish a
long-term career in financial services.  

This Entry Level Professional (ELP) Program allows
for new associates to be immediately integrated into the company’s business
model giving them the skills necessary to serve Valley National’s clients and
grow along with Valley National’s client base. The program includes training,
education and practice of foundations in financial planning, tax preparation,
and investment management.

Last year the company hired two graduates from local
universities into the program: Laura Morganelli, from DeSales University and
Doug Marcincin, from Lehigh University. Both Laura and Doug have since been
integrated into Valley National’s Bethlehem office as Associates.

Applicants
can find more details about the program responsibilities, requirements and
benefits, as well as instructions to apply online at www.valleynationalgroup.com/join-our-team.


Heads Up!

What makes Valley National different? 
As a start Valley National Advisers is a Registered Investment Advisor
firm (“RIA”).  An RIA forms a close
relationship with you – one that is responsive, attentive and personal.  Our advice is based on what’s best for you –
there is no other agenda.  The portfolio
management fees are typically based on a percentage of assets managed.  As your portfolio grows the RIA makes higher
fees so both you and the RIA are pulling the wagon the same direction. 

For more information, let’s look at the three words in “Registered
Investment Advisor” for more meaning:


REGISTERED:  Yes, with the Securities
Exchange Commission.  We have a fiduciary
duty to act in your best interest.


INVESTMENT:  Not only do we invest
your money, but we also help you plan your entire financial picture – such as
your retirement, or children’s education or estate planning. 


ADVISOR:  We are on your side, ready
to offer the advice and guidance you need. 
And we are Independent – no one in a distant corporate headquarters is influencing
us to give you the wrong advice.


The “Heat Map”

Last
week’s Economic reports indicated the U.S. jobs market continue to improve,
retail sales were OK, inventories rose, and inflation continues to be
subdued. 



Most
of the negative economic news came from outside of the US:  China exports dropped 18.1% from a year
earlier level, as well as, fears over a Russian takeover of Crimea and
interference in Ukraine amplified stock market volatility, lowered consumer
confidence, and sent European stock prices dramatically lower.



One
negative economic report last week indicated productivity came in at a lower
level than expected in the 4th Quarter, 2013.  I expect this to be a temporary
situation. 

The Economy

Last
week’s Economic reports indicated the U.S. jobs market continue to improve,
retail sales were OK, inventories rose, and inflation continues to be
subdued. 


Most
of the negative economic news came from outside of the US:  China exports dropped 18.1% from a year
earlier level, as well as, fears over a Russian takeover of Crimea and
interference in Ukraine amplified stock market volatility, lowered consumer
confidence, and sent European stock prices dramatically lower.



One
negative economic report last week indicated productivity came in at a lower
level than expected in the 4th Quarter, 2013.  I expect this to be a temporary
situation. 


The Numbers

Last week, Bonds increased but U.S. Stocks and Foreign Stocks declined.  

Returns through 3-14-2014

1-week

Y-T-D

1-Year

3-Years

5-Years

10-Years

Bonds- BarCap Aggregate Index

   .6

 2.0

   .6

  3.7

 5.1

4.5

US Stocks-Standard & Poor’s 500

 -1.9

   .1

20.2

14.9

22.1

7.3

Foreign Stocks- MS EAFE Developed Countries

  3.1

 -2.5

 9.8

  4.0

13.7

3.7

Source:
Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future
results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.
Three, five and ten year returns are annualized excluding dividends.

“Your Financial Choices”

“Your
Financial Choices”  The
show airs on WDIY Wednesday evenings, from 6-7 p.m. The show is hosted by
Valley National’s Laurie Siebert CPA, CFP®, AEP®.  This week Laurie will discuss:
“Financial Planning – Putting
your Tax Return to Work”

Laurie will take your calls on these topics and
other inquiries this week. WDIY is broadcast on FM 88.1 for reception in most
of the Lehigh Valley; and, it is broadcast on FM 93.9 in the Easton and
Phillipsburg area; and, it is broadcast on FM 93.7 in the Fogelsville and Macungie
area – or listen to it online from anywhere on the internet.  For more
information, including how to listen to the show online, check the show’s
website www.yourfinancialchoices.com
and visit www.wdiy.org