I take great pleasure in announcing Laurie Siebert
CPA, CFP, AEP has been named as one of the “2014 Women of Influence” by Lehigh
Valley Business magazine. The women were
honored for their influence in their companies, industries, and
communities. An independent panel of
judges named the winners based on their career accomplishments, leadership,
vision, community service and mentoring experience.
Laurie is Senior Vice President of Valley National
Financial Advisors and hosts a popular radio show “Your Financial
Choices”. This award by Lehigh Valley
Business is a tribute to Laurie’s diligent efforts to help educate the public
on important decisions in their financial lives.
Vladimir Putin likes to say that there’s nothing
exceptional about the United States. And last week it was hard to argue with
him, at least when it comes to the stock market.
U.S. markets finally succumbed to the malaise
affecting the rest of the world, as the Dow tumbled for five straight days and
the S&P slipped into the red for the year.
Putin, of
course, is largely to blame. Russian troops have massed at the border of
Ukraine, and Crimean residents are set to vote on Sunday about whether to
secede. From there, the region would likely join Mother Russia. European and
American diplomats have threatened sanctions.
“The markets are hostage to diplomacy, and
diplomacy is not working right now,” says Joseph Quinlan, chief market
strategist for U.S. Trust. “There was no breakthrough between the U.S. and
Russia going into the weekend.”
Other factors sapped investors’ enthusiasm. China’s
exports, factory production, and retail sales were weaker than expected.
European industrial production and a reading of consumer confidence in the U.S.
also proved disappointing.
For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average
dropped 2.4%, or 387.05 points, to 16,065.67. The Standard & Poor’s 500
index fell 36.91 points, to 1841.13. The Nasdaq Composite index slipped 2.1%,
or 90.83 points, to 4245.40.
Fears of a trade-sapping Cold War with Russia may be
the biggest factor holding stocks at bay for now. But even if the conflict
dissipates, the U.S. economy and corporate performance are doing little to
light a fire under the market. Analysts’ earnings-growth forecasts for the
first quarter have fallen below 1%, down from almost 5% at the start of the
year. For the full year, earnings are now set to grow 7.7%, compared with
expectations of more than 11% in October, according to S&P Capital IQ.
“Stocks are not overvalued, but they need
validation from the economy,” says Mark Luschini, chief investment
strategist at Janney Capital Management.
That sets up
poorly for the coming week. The Fed will meet on Tuesday and Wednesday and
could decide to change the way it communicates its intentions to the market. So
far, the Federal Open Market Committee has used a “quantitative”
benchmark to determine when to raise interest rates, saying it will begin
considering a raise only after the unemployment rate has fallen below 6.5% and
expected inflation remains below 2.5%. But unemployment is now at 6.7%, and
some Fed officials have begun discussing offering more “qualitative”
guidance not connected to specific numbers. There’s clearly a risk in doing
that—the Bank of England attempted to offer more qualitative guidance last
month and was “somewhat ridiculed” for offering an unclear forecast,
Luschini says. This will be Janet Yellen’s first meeting at the helm, and it
looks like it won’t be easy. (Barrons Online).
The three M’s of March Madness: Money, Media and
Marketing. March Madness has now drawn
even with the Super Bowl for followers – not overlooked by marketing
professionals. Because it is drawn out
over a couple weeks, there is plenty of opportunity to market products through
all sorts of media carrying the games, pools, betting results etc., And, the actual players receive none.
The fact that the market made up its nearly 6% January
swoon in the absence of a clear catalyst is at least a good sign that the
market drop was, more likely than not, an ordinary correction.
It’s a tough time of
the year for sports. Olympics are
over. It’s too early for golf. Baseball starts 5 weeks from now. March Madness is around the corner yet. I can’t get into the NBA. And, hockey is on break. There is too much snow on the ground to do
anything outside. Oh well, let’s get
back to those tax returns!
It’s true – I am an optimist. And, I have been optimistic on stocks for a
while so why wouldn’t I continue to be optimistic given earnings growth, and
the accommodative Fed. I’m looking beyond
the grueling winter weather. The basic supports to the economy remain the same.
Eventually, even this snow will melt.
I am proud to inform you that Valley National has
been quoted in the Wall Street Journal.
The WSJ recently interviewed Matt Petrozelli, Valley National’s
Executive Vice President and Chief Executive Officer, concerning changes in wealth management. Click here for the article.
My boyhood home, located in a remote part of Western PA, draws the media’s attention one day each year – on February 2nd– which happens to occur this coming Sunday:
The Meaning of Groundhog Day & Punxsutawney Phil, the “seer of seers and prognosticator of prognosticators,” is a groundhog resident of Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, USA. On February 2, (Groundhog Day) of each year, the town of Punxsutawney celebrates the beloved groundhog with a festive atmosphere of music and food. During the ceremony, which begins well before the winter sunrise, Phil emerges from his temporary home on Gobbler’s Knob, located in a rural area about 2 miles east of town. According to the tradition, if Phil sees his shadow and returns to his hole, the United States will have six more weeks of winter. If Phil does not see his shadow, spring will arrive early. The date of Phil’s prognostication is known as Groundhog Day in the United States and Canada. This year Phil did see his shadow as is normally the case.
I have been
writing and publishing The Weekly Commentary almost 7 years. Occasionally I look back in the early issues
to reminisce.I happened across my “Personal
Notes” from 6 years ago:
“Santa Was Good to Me – I Received the Gift
at the Top of My Christmas Wish List. It’s called a “Kindle” – a new
electronic device that will eventually replace all books. “
I recall a number
of readers questioned me back then on my seemingly outlandish remarks about the
eventual obsolescence of books since the Kindle (the first of the high quality
electronic reading devices) had just come onto the marketplace.But, that no longer appears to be so
incredible.In the not too distant
future, school children will not be learning from books.Instead students will learn from his or her
iPad, Note, Slate or whatever it will be called – but it will be electronic and
not paper.It is no longer such a
struggle to imagine that.
Only
2 Days of Trading Remaining in 2013:
Consider Selling Those Stocks and Mutual Funds That Have a Loss. “Taking your losses” is a good tax planning
strategy (this does not apply to IRAs, TSAs, 401ks, and other pension
accounts).
The
IRS permits you to take losses to the extent you have capital gains, plus $3,000.
NOTE: We anticipate that many mutual funds will
declare and pay a capital gain distribution in December. Taking losses will eliminate the negative
effect of these capital gains dividends in many cases.
