The Markets This Week

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Multiple attempts were made on Mount Everest over a period of 20-some-odd years before Edmund Hillary and  Tenzing Norgay summited its peak in 1953. Hopefully it won’t take that long for the Dow Jones Industrial Average to reach 20,000.

Last Friday, the Dow came within 0.37 point of reaching that big round number, the closest it has come since Barron’s put the blue-chip benchmark on 20,000-watch on Dec. 10. Lost amid all the will-it-or-won’t-it was the fact that the Standard & Poor’s 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite closed at record highs last week, even as the Dow ultimately fell short.

The Nasdaq Composite climbed 2.6% to 5521.06. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 201.20 points, or 1%, to 19,963.80, its second-highest close on record.

Should we worry that the Dow faltered just as it seemed it would finally take 20,000? Probably not, says Sameer Samana, global quantitative strategist at Wells Fargo. The Dow has been making its attempt for only a few weeks, and its failure to break through has come after a 9.2% rally since Nov. 4. If the market stays in a rut, he might get worried. For now, Samana contends it’s “just a matter of time.”

And time appears to be on the market’s side. Even a “disappointing” payrolls report last Friday was unable to derail the stock market’s surge higher. Yes, the U.S. created 156,000 new jobs in December, fewer than the 175,000 predicted by economists. But the headline miss didn’t take into account the upward revisions to previous months, which easily offset the December shortfall. “We’re generating more jobs than there are people to fill them,” says Jonathan Golub, Chief U.S. Market Strategist at RBC. “It just feeds this,” he continues, “this” being the stock market rally, of course.

(Source: Barrons Online)

Heads Up!

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The U.S. stock market has jumped since the November 8th election. Many investors are asking if now is a good time to “take profits” and sit on the side lines to wait to see what happens. But this strategy is a form of market timing.  If there is one thing we have learned from 2016 is that it is exceptionally difficult to time the market. Instead of market timing, let’s identify and track the 4 initiatives the U.S. stock market is speculating will be successfully accomplished early in the Trump administration.

If Trump administration successfully accomplishes the 4 initiatives, then the stock market has speculated correctly and could trend to higher and higher levels over the next 4 to 5 years. However, if his administration is unsuccessful in accomplishing the 4 initiatives, then stock market investors may find themselves disappointed with a correction sending shares values back down to levels witnessed prior to the November 8th election.

The outcome of the 4 initiatives have a substantial impact on the factors in the “Heat Map”

The 4 Trump administration initiatives upon which the stock market is speculating are:

  1. Tax cuts and tax reforms benefiting most individuals and businesses.
  2. Infrastructure spending of up to $1 Trillion over the upcoming 7 to 10 years.
  3. Affordable Care Act amendment, reform or reorganization.
  4. Roll back of government regulations and Executive Orders considered to be difficult for businesses.

As the action happens in Washington on these 4 initiatives, don’t be surprised if the beginning of 2017 is wilder than the end of 2016.

We will report in future issues on the progress on each initiative. 

The “Heat Map”

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Most of the time, the U.S. stock market looks to 3 factors (call them the “pillars” which support the stock market) to support its upward trend – let’s grade each of the pillars.

CONSUMER SPENDING: This grade is A- (very favorable). Favorable activity in the housing market continues to support growth in the level of spending. This category’s grade will improve if and when the Trump legislation is passed.

THE FED AND ITS POLICIES: This factor is rated C-. The FED stated it would take a wait and see attitude toward the economic impact of legislation the Trump Administrations has proposed. Some experts believe the FED could raise rates at a faster pace if and when the Trump proposed legislation is passed into law. The FED is in the process of turning from a friend to the stock market to an anchor weighing down profitability, reducing valuations, and constraining growth.

BUSINESS PROFITABILITY: This factor’s grade is rated a B- (above average). Trump’s goal is a 4% growth rate for the U.S. economy. This will increase business profits significantly.

OTHER CONCERNS: The “Heat Map” is indicating the U.S. stock market is in OK shape ASSUMING no international crisis. On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the highest level of crisis, we rate these international risks collectively as a 3. These risks deserve our ongoing attention.

The Numbers

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Last week, U.S. Stocks, Foreign Stocks and Bonds all increased. During the last 12 months, STOCKS outperformed BONDS.

Returns through 12-23-2016

1-week

Y-T-D

1-Year

3-Years

5-Years

10-Years

Bonds- BarCap Aggregate Index

 .3

2.0

2.1

2.7

2.3

4.3

US Stocks-Standard & Poor’s 500

 .3

13.4

12.5

9.5

14.8

7.0

Foreign Stocks- MS EAFE Developed Countries

 .1

.3

.1

-1.7

6.5

.7

Source: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized excluding dividends.

The Markets This Week

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Stocks inched higher this week, but investors are still waiting for the Dow Jones Industrial Average to breach 20,000.

Yes, it almost got there. Last Tuesday, the Dow came within 13 points of that elusive round number, but it finished the week just short at 19,933.81, up 90.40 points, or 0.5%—marking its seventh straight week of gains. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index to 2263.79, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.5%, to 5462.69.

It was probably too much to expect fireworks from the Dow this week. With the long Christmas weekend looming, trading all but dried up. On Friday, the Dow traded in a range of just 35.09 points, the smallest since Dec. 30, 2013, and the rest of the week wasn’t much more exciting. On Friday, just 3.98 billion shares traded hands, the lightest volume on a full trading day since Dec. 26, 2014.

It’s also perfectly reasonable—and not just because most of us were looking ahead to the holidays. The Dow has gained nearly 10% since the end of October, more than double its 4.1% rise during the first nine months of the year, spurred in part by Donald J. Trump’s victory in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. The pause “makes some sense given how much the market has run,” says Jason Pride, director of investment strategy at Glenmede. “But 20,000 is a clearable number.”

Eminently so, and don’t be surprised if it happens as early as next week. Historically, the last week of the year has been a nice gift to investors. Since 1928, the S&P 500 has gained 1.14 percentage points during the last five trading days of the year, notes Cornerstone Macro technical analyst Carter Worth, well above the average 0.14-point rise for all five-day periods. “The odds are high” that the last days of the year will “play out well,” he observes. And if they do, we won’t have to wait for 2017 to witness Dow 20,000.

(Source: Barrons Online)

Heads Up!

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Interest rates are rising! And, we suspect interest rates will rise much further. A most respected bond market guru, Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine Capital and one of the world’s most successful bond investors, predicts a rise in bond yields that could lift the yield on the 10-year Treasury note to 6% in the next four or five years from its current level of 2.5%.

Trump’s pro-business agenda is inherently “unfriendly” to bonds, Gundlach says, as it could to lead to stronger economic growth and renewed inflation. Gundlach expects President-elect Trump to “amp up the deficit” to pay for infrastructure projects and other programs. That could produce an inflation rate of 3% and nominal growth of 4% to 6% in gross domestic product. “If nominal GDP pushes toward 4%, 5%, or even 6%, there is no way you are going to get bond yields to stay below 2%,” Gundlach says.

Additionally, the current FED Chairperson Janet Yellen’s tenure may end in 13 months. The new FED chair could sell, over time, the $3.5 Trillion of Treasury Bonds and mortgages the FED acquired since 2008. We reckon this will add substantial pressure to lift interest rates even higher.

NOTE: Keep in mind, rising interest rates reduces the price of bond and bond mutual fund currently owned. The longer the bond maturity, the larger the drop in price.

ACTION: Now is the time for implementing the following portfolio strategies: (1) eliminate long term bonds (over 15 years maturity) and long term bond mutual funds; and (2) reduce the holdings of intermediate term bonds and intermediate term bond mutual funds; and (3) invest the proceeds of (1) and (2) into short-term bonds.

The “Heat Map”

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Most of the time, the U.S. stock market looks to 3 factors (call them the “pillars” which support the stock market) to support its upward trend – let’s grade each of the pillars.

CONSUMER SPENDING: This grade is A- (very favorable). Favorable activity in the housing market continues to support growth in the level of spending. This category’s grade will improve if and when the Trump legislation is passed.

THE FED AND ITS POLICIES: This factor is rated C- (DOWN FROM A). Yesterday, the FED raised interest rates .25%. The FED also signaled it might raise rates three times during 2017 which exceeded bond market experts’ prediction of 2 moves during 2017. And, the FED stated it would take a wait and see attitude toward the economic impact of legislation the Trump Administrations has proposed. Some experts believe the FED could raise rates at a faster pace if and when the Trump proposed legislation is passed into law. The FED is in the process of turning from a friend to the stock market to an anchor weighing down profitability, reducing valuations, and constraining growth.

BUSINESS PROFITABILITY: This factor’s grade is rated a B- (above average). Trump’s goal is a 4% growth rate for the U.S. economy. This will increase business profits significantly.

OTHER CONCERNS: The “Heat Map” is indicating the U.S. stock market is in OK shape ASSUMING no international crisis. On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the highest level of crisis, we rate these international risks collectively as a 3 (decrease from the last Weekly Commentary).  These risks deserve our ongoing attention.

The Numbers

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Last week, U.S. Stocks and Foreign Stocks increased, but Bonds declined. During the last 12 months, STOCKS outperformed BONDS.

Returns through 12-9-2016

1-week

Y-T-D

1-Year

3-Years

5-Years

10-Years

Bonds- BarCap Aggregate Index

-.3

2.1

1.7

2.8

2.3

4.3

US Stocks-Standard & Poor’s 500

3.1

12.9

12.8

10.0

14.9

7.1

Foreign Stocks- MS EAFE Developed Countries

2.9

.6

.8

-.7

6.2

.9

Source: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized excluding dividends.