“Your Financial Choices” on WDIY 88.1

The show airs on WDIY Wednesday evenings, from 6-7 p.m. The show is hosted by Valley National’s Laurie Siebert CPA, CFP. This week a pre-recorded show will discuss:


“Financial Planning Choices – Make the Best of Yours” 
 
This show will be broadcast at the regular time. WDIY is broadcast on FM 88.1 for reception in most of the Lehigh Valley; and, it is broadcast on FM 93.9 in the Easton/Phillipsburg area; and, it is broadcast on FM 93.7 in the Fogelsville/Macungie area – or listen to it online from anywhere on the internet. For more information, including how to listen to the show online, check the show’s website www.yourfinancialchoices.com and visit www.wdiy.org.

Personal Notes

Souvenirs from Lafayette-Lehigh, the longest ongoing rivalry in college football.

Lafayette/Lehigh – the most played game in college football. I attended the game and, as always, my alma mater won. GO LEHIGH! The national play-offs are next. Let’s continue to build respect for the Patriot League and non-scholarship college football.

The Markets This Week

In a week in which stock prices fell 4%, the harm was less than meets the eye, limited, psychologically at least, by sleepy trading volumes.

Shares stumbled on a combination of new ratings-downgrade warnings tied to European debt, and renewed frustration with Congress’s polarization and inability to come to an agreement on U.S. government-debt reduction.

Nevertheless, the market’s upward momentum since September remains intact for the near term, if still hostage to politicians on both sides of the Atlantic, market observers say. Volumes in the Thanksgiving holiday week are traditionally low, but there could be one unusual worry. More on that below.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 357.52 points last week, or 3%, to close at 11,796.16, putting it 2% ahead year-to-date. Meanwhile, the Standard & Poor’s 500 is off 3.3% for 2011. The Nasdaq Composite, down 106.25 points, lost 4% to end at 2572.50. It, too, is down more than 3% this year.

Fitch Ratings warned Wednesday that unless the euro-zone debt crisis is resolved soon, U.S. banking’s broad credit outlook could worsen. “Whatever happens in Europe continues to drive markets,” notes Kate Warne, an investment strategist at Edward Jones. “No attention at all was paid” to the generally better-than-expected U.S. economic news all week, like Friday’s Conference Board report that its index of leading economic indicators rose 0.9% in October, the most since February.

In addition to the Fitch note, adds Randall Warren, chief investment officer at Warren Financial, “the market started to price in problems associated with congressional budget cuts or lack thereof.” Europe was the proximate cause, but “the deeper problem is the one at home,” he says. “There’s so much skepticism on anything good coming out of Congress. It’s hard to predict what will come out of the budget super committee.”

Investors are worried, says Warne, that Congress won’t be able to make the tough decisions necessary to put the U.S. debt problem on a better path than Europe’s. Looking ahead, the Nov. 23 deadline for the “Supercommittee” to come to a debt-reduction agreement looms painfully.

Given the market’s huge gyrations since mid-summer, thanks mainly to the vicissitudes of the slow-motion European sovereign-debt crisis, this particular Thanksgiving holiday could be more nerve racking than usual for investors. With markets closed in the U.S. Thursday, but open in Europe, the risk of mischief rises, at least for a day.

In Thanksgivings past, global markets typically took their cues from U.S. equities, and American investors could enjoy their holiday meal relatively undisturbed. Historically, European indexes have risen on Thanksgiving. The Friday following has been one of the best days of the year in S&P 500 Index performance, according to Bespoke Investment Group. This Thanksgiving, things could be different, with the tail wagging the dog. Bad news from the Continent could cause investors here to cut themselves while carving the bird.

And contrary to history, it could be tough going here Friday, too, if there’s more bad news about sovereign-debt yields. That day, an Italian Treasury bill auction will be taking place.

Then on Tuesday, Nov. 29, a two day European Union financial ministers’ meeting begins, so the potential for post-turkey day agita is also high. Meanwhile, Greece reportedly will run out of cash by mid-December. Well, Happy Thanksgiving anyway? (Source: Barrons Online)

The Numbers

Last week, U.S. Stocks and Foreign Stocks decreased and Bonds were
little changed.  During the last 12 months, BONDS outperformed U.S. STOCKS.
 
 


Returns
through 11-18-2011

1-week

Y-T-D

1-Year

3-Years

5-Years

10-Years

Bonds-
BarCap  Aggregate Index

   
0.0

    
6.9

6.0

   
8.3

  
6.4

   
5.7

US
Stocks-Standard & Poor’s 500

  
-3.8

   
-1.6

3.7

   
9.0

  -6.0

     
.6

Foreign
Stocks- MS EAFE Developed Countries

  -4.1

 
-15.6

-14.0

   
7.0

 -6.6

   
1.9

Source:
Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future
results.  Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into
directly.  Three, five and ten year returns are annualized excluding
dividends.

The Outlook

Recently, I attended the IMPACT investment conference with 3,000 other top financial advisors and leading investment experts hosted by Schwab in its hometown of San Francisco. I attended a number of information-rich education sessions and hands-on technology in the topical areas of economics, Investment strategies, Regulatory issues, as well as global politics. Among the speakers, many of which were interviewed: Bill Gross, the foremost expert on fixed income; Liz Ann Sonders, Schwab’s Chief Investment Strategist; Tony Blair, the former Prime Minister of the UK, and Chuck (Mr. Charles Schwab).

In summary, the global economic outlook is not so bad after all; but there is a huge risk that Europe could de-rail our economic recovery in the U.S. The risk is big enough, at this time, to make preservation, conservative, and moderate risk investors hesitate before adding more stock and stock mutual funds to their portfolio in a lump sum. Click here to read more

“Your Financial Choices” on WDIY 88.1 FM


The show airs on WDIY Wednesday evenings, from 6-7 p.m. The show is hosted by Valley National’s Laurie Siebert CPA, CFP. This week Laurie will discuss:

“Various financial planning strategies to use significant to your age, especially for retirement planning”

This show will be broadcast at the regular time. WDIY is broadcast on FM 88.1 for reception in most of the Lehigh Valley; and, it is broadcast on FM 93.9 in the Easton/Phillipsburg area; and, it is broadcast on FM 93.7 in the Fogelsville/Macungie area – or listen to it online from anywhere on the internet. For more information, including how to listen to the show online, check the show’s website www.yourfinancialchoices.com and visit www.wdiy.org.

Personal Notes


I cannot recall an event to trigger more debate than Joe
Paterno’s termination.  There can be no debating the terrible deeds of
Sandusky.  However, the Paterno debate started at home, continued to the
office, became part of client discussions and remained pervasive over the
weekend.  I predict the debate will continue every time new information
comes to light, perhaps, years in the future.

A Letter from Donna Young and Team Dare to Move Yourself


The walk for the Leukemia & Lymphoma Society took place on Saturday, October 15 with Valley National’s team of ten people. Though the day started out cold and windy, by the time we walked, it was just a bit breezy and very pleasant. Everyone had a colored balloon (red for supporters, white for survivors or gold for those walking in memory of loved ones) that was lit via an LED light. It was quite a sight, and I could not help but feel overwhelmed at this large group of people gathered together for one cause. There was so much heartache and so many personal stories in this large mass of people. But, there were no tears. Just a feeling of happiness and power to fight for someone or something that needed some warriors. 


I am very pleased to announce that our team raised approximately $6500 for the Leukemia & Lymphoma Society – a wonderful contribution that will surely go a long way towards blood cancer research. And, we couldn’t have done it without your support. 

I wish to thank you all for your support and contributions to this cause, as I feel both humbled and blessed. If my worth is calculated by my friends, neighbors, and family, then I am truly a rich person.

Thank you all again!

Love,

Donna Young & Team Dare to Move Yourself

Economic Reports Last Week

Last week the number of POSITIVE developments exceeded NEGATIVE
developments, and the stock markets moved higher.  


Below is a succinct list of last week’s events:


Positives:
1) Berlusconi goes and Italian Senate passes budget (awaits lower House)
2) EFSF sells bonds to fund Irish bailout after last week’s failure
3) ECB members stick to guns and say money printing not going to happen. They implicitly say to Italy, ‘you figure it out,’
4) Initial Jobless Claims fall to 390k, 10k less than expected and 4 week average falls to lowest since April
5) Sept Exports rise to record high but can it last?
6) MBA said refi’s rose 12.1% and purchases were up 4.8% as mortgage rates fell
7) US import prices unexpectedly fall by .6% m/o/m led by food and energy prices
8) China’s CPI moderates to five month low but remains still high at 5.5%

Negatives:
1) Italian bond yields move higher again but close well off week’s intraday highs. 3rd largest bond market in the world staring over the edge. French rising bond yields becoming big focus too
2) Will the ECB be left with no choice but to be like Bernanke?
3) US 10 yr and 30 yr Treasury auctions were weak, finally push back on historically low yields with inflation elevated and concerns with Super Duper Undercover Secret Committee?
4) Import prices from China rise .4% m/o/m, the most since April
5) India’s IP in Sept rise at the slowest pace in 2 yrs
6) German IP in Sept fall a greater than expected 2.7%