Last week we saw major markets diverge for the first time this year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average notched out a +1.15% return while the S&P 500 Index (-1.55%) and the NASDAQ (-3.11%) each posted negative returns. This divergence of returns is emblematic of the market and economy themselves with economists calling a pending recession while real data – jobs, bank balance sheets, Earnings Per Share (EPS) releases and consumer health – remains healthy if not growing in strength. 

Global Economy 
U.S. economists are beginning to increasingly predict a recession within the next 12 months. On average, economists put the probability of a coming recession at 63%, up from 49% in July. This is the first time since July 2020 that the survey has yielded a result above 50%. Additionally, the survey suggests that GDP (Gross Domestic Product) will contract at

-0.2% on an annual basis during Q1 2023 and -0.1% in Q2 2023. These predictions come as doubts heighten over the Fed’s ability to tame inflation without inducing increased unemployment. Two-thirds of those surveyed believe the Federal Reserve will pivot in either Q4 2023 or Q1 2024.  

European Union leaders are meeting on October 20 and 21 to discuss potential implementation options for a cap on gas prices. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin vastly reduced gas exports to Europe as retaliation for the economic sanctions the country received. Energy in the EU is becoming prohibitively expensive, raising concerns for a rough winter over the next few months. The annual inflation rate for energy is currently standing at 37.5%, with electricity at 35.7%, gas at 62.5%, and liquid fuels at 78.9%. 

What to Watch 

Monday, October 17^th  

• 4:30PM: US Retail Gas Price (Prior: $4.034/gal.) 

Wednesday, October 19^th  

• 8:30AM: US Housing Starts (Prior: 1.575M) 
• 8:30AM: US Housing Starts MoM (Prior: 12.18%) 
• 10:00AM: US Job Openings, Total Nonfarm (Prior: 10.05M) 

Thursday, October 20^th 

• 10:00AM: 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Prior: 6.92%) 
• 10:00AM: US Existing Home Sales (Prior: 4.80M) 
• 10:00AM: US Existing Home Sales MoM (Prior: -0.41%) 

While calls for a recession mount mostly on economist’s note pads and TV prognosticator’s teleprompters, the underlying fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain solid as we stated above. If we get a recession, the economy starts with a real safety net that did not exist in the 2008-09 recession, thereby guaranteeing said recession is neither deep nor lengthy. Opportunities mount in fixed income (now offering yields north of 4.00%) and equities (now trading ~19x forward EPS & yields ~2.00% on the S&P 500 Index) offering investors good entry points for continued long-term wealth creation. 

Investors have navigated a difficult market all year and the third quarter was no exception. All major indices ended the quarter in bear market territory with the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq declining 5.3%, 6.7%, and 4.1%, respectively, from July to September. With the dollar strengthening and the global economy slowing, the MSCI EAFE index of developed markets fell 10% over the same period in dollar terms, while the MSCI EM index of emerging markets pulled back 12.5%. Interest rates jumped with the 10-Year Treasury yield climbing above 4% on an intra-day basis, the highest level since 2008. The challenges of persistently high inflation and slowing growth have continued to impact the expectations of both investors and policymakers.

In times like these, investors would naturally prefer to wait until it feels comfortable to invest, and even experienced investors may wonder if markets will ever turn around. Therefore, it’s important to remind investors that while bear markets are unpleasant, they also create opportunities for long-term investors. The valuations of major indices, sectors and styles are at their most attractive levels in years, and bond yields are finally at levels that can support portfolio income. 

A key principle of investing is that achieving long-term returns doesn’t just involve risk – it requires risk. This is true whether markets are down due to the economy, geopolitics, a pandemic, or any of the hundreds of investor concerns over the past few decades. After all, if staying invested were easy, everyone would do it and there would be no opportunities at all. History shows that those investors who have the discipline and fortitude to handle market pullbacks are often rewarded. So, for those focused on the rear-view mirror, the glass may seem half empty. For those focused on future recovery and growth, the glass is overflowing. Having the right mindset to overcome our own psychology has never mattered more.

At the same time, it’s also important to understand what is driving these market dynamics. Below, we highlight six important insights that will continue to affect markets and the economy through the remainder of 2022 and beyond.

1. Interest rates are rising after declining for 40 years

Markets rallied beginning in June but abruptly reversed course in late August. The turn in the market coincided with Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole during which he emphasized that the Fed would continue to fight inflation by keeping interest rates higher for longer. This message was then reiterated at the Fed’s September meeting with the third 75 basis point hike in a row and higher projections through 2023.

This jump in both policy and market rates is breaking a 40-year pattern of declining interest rates. It’s no wonder that financial markets have been volatile as they adjust to a higher cost of capital and slower economic growth. Regardless, both history and the summer period show that markets can move forward.
2. The stock market is adjusting to higher inflation and rising rates

While the first three quarters of this year have experienced poor returns, it’s important to maintain perspective on the past few years. Last year experienced some of the best returns as the world emerged from the pandemic. In all, markets are still quite positive since 2020 and the S&P 500 has gained over 40% since the beginning of 2019. Since markets never move in a straight line, it’s important for investors to take the good with the bad in order to not overreact to short-term events.  

3. Inflation is still elevated despite falling energy prices

Energy prices plummeted throughout the third quarter, reversing much of the effect of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on oil and gas markets. This helped to bring gasoline prices down, although they are still higher than during any other period over the past decade. Headline inflation – which includes food and energy – has eased as a result.

Economists and policymakers continue to focus on “core” inflation which re-accelerated in August, a sign that price pressures have broadened and continue to hurt consumer pocketbooks. This is a key reason the Fed has doubled down on its inflation fight.

4. The Fed is expecting to keep rates higher for longer

The Fed has communicated that it will keep interest rates higher for longer. This has raised investor concerns over whether the Fed can bring down inflation without creating a deep recession – a so-called “soft landing” versus a “hard landing.” This is a difficult balancing act for the Fed as they try to achieve their dual mandate of both price stability and maximum employment. The markets will continue to adjust to these new expectations in the coming months.  

5. Higher mortgage rates have slowed the housing market

One of the main effects of higher interest rates is rising mortgage costs. The average rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage is now 6.7% – the highest since the mid-2000s and far above the average of 4% since the last housing bubble. Housing activity is slowing across the board from building permits to housing starts, and from refinancing activity to existing home sales.

While there may be some similarities, this underlying situation is quite unlike the housing bubble of the late 2000s. The key difference is financial leverage across individuals, banks, and throughout the financial system. The underlying fundamentals are much better today than those leading up to 2008. Still, a struggling housing market may impact consumer spending and retail sales as household net worth comes down, at least on paper.

6. Investors should continue to focus on the long run

If history teaches us anything, it’s that fighting the urge to overreact to short-term events is one of the keys to long-term investor success. This chart shows the S&P 500 index going back to before the Great Depression. The fact that the market trends upward over time and follows the path of economic growth is clear. Along the way, there were countless major historical challenges to overcome from wars to bear markets. When zoomed out, these look like blips compared to the gains investors achieved over years and decades.

The bottom line? The ongoing bear market is challenging and unpleasant. However, it is no reason for investors to lose sight of their financial goals. In fact, those investors with the discipline and patience to take advantage of opportunities will likely be rewarded in the long run.

Equity markets posted their first weekly gain in several weeks as a surprise move by the Australian Central Bank to raise rates less than expected sparked a global rally in stocks. As the week progressed, hopes of an earlier “Fed Pivot” were dashed as little economic data released showed signs of a slowing economy or decreasing inflationary pressures. However, one small piece of economic data, Job Openings, released October 5 at 10.05 million vs. 11.17 million in the prior month showed a modest crack in the tight labor market.  

U.S. Economy 
As mentioned, one piece of economic data from last week, U.S. Job Openings, which is a survey done to assess labor turnover, job openings, hires and separations, showed a decline from the prior month (-10%). Other labor data released last week including new jobs added (+263,000), unemployment (3.5%) and hourly earnings (+5%) all showed continued strength which means jobs data is strong enough to keep the Fed on track to hike interest rates +0.75% next month. The decrease in job openings shows that companies are slowing the pace of hiring before cutting jobs, therefore keeping the unemployment rate low. (See Chart 1 from Valley National Financial Advisors & Y Charts showing U.S. Job Openings and U.S. Unemployment Rate). 

Last week’s labor trends were important, but this week’s inflation data is critically important because it will show whether the Fed’s aggressive interest rate tightening is having an impact on prices producers and consumers are paying. This is the critical data the Fed will be watching. Lastly, this week starts the third-quarter earnings season, which provides yet another reading of economic activity. 

Policy and Politics 
The Russia/Ukraine War is far from over. In fact, last week and this week we are seeing a drastic escalation in fighting with Vladmir Putin again casually mentioning nuclear weapons. We see this escalation as a severe threat to global stability and continued energy uncertainty and shortages for the Euro region. This opens the door (although unlikely to be used) for the U.S. to step up energy production via fracking, drilling or production and shipping of LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) to Europe, for example. 

What to Watch 

• U.S. Core Producer Price Index year-over-year for September 2022, released 8:30am 10/12 (prior 7.26%) 
• U.S. Producer Price Index year-over-year for September 2022, released 8:30am 10/12 (prior 8.72%) 
• U.S. Consumer Price Index year-over-year for September 2022, released 8:30am 10/13 (prior 8.26%) 
• U.S. Inflation Rate for September 2022, released 8:30am 10/13 (prior 8.26%) 

Last week we saw in just two trading sessions, the Dow Jones industrial Average gained over 5% (+1,328 points). An investor missing those two days by casually sitting on the sidelines rather than being invested, missed a major move in the markets which is why we always talk about “Time in the Markets” rather than “Timing the Markets.”  Real, transferable, and generational wealth is gathered over extended periods of time by patient and committed investors. We leave you with two classic charts from Valley National Financial Advisors and Y Charts: (Staying Invested: Missing the Best Days and Timing the Market).