The Markets This Week

One bad day of Fed-induced fretting about interest rates didn’t spoil the whole week, and by Friday the broad market had closed up 1.4%. Fading from view—at least for now—is the ratcheting up of sanctions and rancor between the West and Russia over the illegal absorption of Crimea.

Comments from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and chair Janet Yellen on Wednesday suggested the Federal Reserve might raise its funds rate earlier than expected and shook up both stocks and bonds temporarily.

Despite that, on the week the Dow Jones Industrial Average still rose 237 points or 1.5% to 16,302.77. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose 25 point to 1866.52. On Friday the S&P reached a new intraday high of 1883.97 before fading. The Nasdaq Composite index added 31 points, or 0.7%, to 4276.79.

In a policy statement Wednesday, the FOMC hiked guidance for the federal funds rate to 1% at the end of 2015 and 2.25% at 2016’s end, compared to the previous 0.75% to 1.75%, respectively; it’s currently 0-0.25%. The Fed repeated that the funds rate will remain near zero for a “considerable time” after its bond-buying program ends. However, at the press conference afterwards, Yellen was asked to clarify the timing and said it “probably means something on the order of around six months.”

She shocked the market by putting a number on it—six months, notes Frederic Dickson, chief investment strategist at D.A. Davidson. Investors are still mulling whether that was just a rookie mistake or perhaps an inadvertent disclosure of FOMC thinking. Investors know rates are going up, and probably in 2015, yet the subject will likely remain a trip wire for market volatility in coming months (Barrons Online).

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