Heads Up!

Fear and high frequency traders were in full force during the first week of 2016. The result was a turbulent week in the worldwide stock markets. Fears about China’s economic slowdown and crashing oil prices shook investors’ resolve. At times like this, investors should be reminded of behavioral tendencies which lead to knee jerk reactions and mistakes. For more information about common mistakes investors make, click here.

The “Heat Map”

Most of the time, the U.S. stock market looks to 3 factors (call them the “pillars” which support the stock market) to support its upward trend – let’s grade each of the pillars.

CONSUMER SPENDING: This grade equals B+ (very favorable). Gasoline prices continue to drop. These trends put more money in the pockets of Americans in 2016.

THE FED AND ITS POLICIES: This factor is rated B (favorable). The U.S. economy can handle higher rates as long as the pace of future interest rate increases is slow. Fed Chair Janet Yellen made clear in her press conference after the December meeting that the path higher would be “gradual”.

The Fed’s plan to gradually raise rates in the coming years won’t derail the economy and brings some certainty to the market, says Morningstar’s Bob Johnson.  The market consensus on the 2016 pace of increase is somewhere around two to possibly three rate increase of .25% each.

BUSINESS PROFITABILITY: This factor’s grade is a C (average). In about two weeks, investors will turn their attention to the fourth-quarter earnings season.

OTHER CONCERNS: The “Heat Map” is indicating the U.S. stock market is in OK shape ASSUMING no international crisis. On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the highest level of crisis, we rate these international risks collectively as a 7 which is an increase from 5 last week due to Saudi Arabia severing diplomatic ties with Iran. These risks deserve our ongoing attention.

My Choice

The purpose of the section is to share valuable information about positive actions or information to empower ourselves. Advisors and/or staff of Valley National select a topic they would like to share with you which you can choose to use. This week, Rob Ziobro, Valley National’s manager of information technology and Laurie Siebert CPA, CFP, AEP®, Senior Vice-President of Valley National have chosen to share important information about: “Cybersecurity: raising awareness of vulnerabilities in sharing personal information.” For detailed information you can choose to use, click here.

The Numbers

Last week, U.S. Stocks and Foreign Stocks both decreased. Bonds increased. During the last 12 months, BONDS outperformed STOCKS.

Returns through 1-8-2016

1-week

Y-T-D

1-Year

3-Years

5-Years

10-Years

Bonds- BarCap Aggregate Index

.6

.6

.5

1.8

3.9

4.6

US Stocks-Standard & Poor’s 500

-5.9

-5.9

-4.8

12.0

10.9

6.3

Foreign Stocks- MS EAFE Developed Countries

-6.1

-6.1

-4.7

2.4

2.5

1.9

Source: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized excluding dividends.

“Your Financial Choices”

The show airs on WDIY Wednesday evenings, from 6-7 p.m. The show is hosted by Valley National’s Laurie Siebert CPA, CFP®, AEP®. This week Laurie will discuss:

“Getting ready for filing your tax return”

Laurie will take your calls on these topics and other inquiries this week. Questions may be submitted early through www.yourfinancialchoices.com by clicking Contact Laurie. This show will be broadcast at the regular time. WDIY is broadcast on FM 88.1 for reception in most of the Lehigh Valley; and, it is broadcast on FM 93.9 in the Easton and Phillipsburg area– or listen to it online from anywhere on the internet.  For more information, including how to listen to the show online, check the show’s website www.yourfinancialchoices.com and visit www.wdiy.org.

Common Behavioral Mistakes Made By Investors

At times like this, investors should be reminded of behavioral tendencies which lead to knee jerk reactions and mistakes.

  1. Overreaction/availability bias. In financial terms, overreaction is the tendency to react in the right direction—but excessively so. Example: An investor who pulls all of their money out of the stock market at the first sign of bad news. “It’s like the investing equivalent of a person who gets upset by a small thing and loses their temper completely,” said Hersh Shefrin, a professor of finance at Santa Clara University’s Leavey School of Business and author of Beyond Greed and Fear: Understanding Behavioral Finance and the Psychology of Investing. Overreaction is often related to availability bias, which is the habit of overweighting easily available information. It can be something as small as a client seeing a dip in the account balance on their monthly statement. “If the client is prone to overreaction, something small like that can cause them to question their entire investment strategy,” he said. Availability bias makes the situation worse, since the client will likely put too much weight on information that’s new or easily available, rather than taking a step back and looking at the bigger picture. “Both of these biases tend to lead to mispricing in the market,” Shefrin pointed out. “People assume that stocks that have done really well will continue to do so for a long time, and vice versa.”
  2. Focusing on short-term performance. Human beings tend to overweight the importance of whatever’s going on right now. Simply put, we’re wired to be short-term thinkers, and overcoming that tendency is a difficult—but not impossible—task. Investors may feel the pain of a loss in the moment more acutely than they’ll appreciate a gain over time. That’s not surprising, as Shefrin said, “When you lose, it hurts today.” Of course, common sense reminds us financial markets tend to reward patience. But it can be hard for investors to truly believe in a reward that’s years in the future. This behavioral bias is compounded by the fact our media consumption now means we’re bombarded with messages about short-term developments in the financial markets. News spreads through the Internet so quickly, it feels like things can turn on a dime.
  3. Following the herd. Warren Buffet made his billions by blazing his own trail. And while most investors would like to follow the same path as the Oracle of Omaha, the truth is the average investor is more likely to simply follow other investors. Herd behavior can lead to all sorts of unfortunate consequences, most disastrously when an investor buys when the market is high and then sells in a panic when things start to go the other direction.
  4. Confirmation bias. When you have a strongly held belief, it’s easy to see validation everywhere. This habit of noticing information that affirms your beliefs and opinions while also ignoring or denying contradictory information is known as confirmation bias. It’s powerful in part because it’s reassuring: “Once you’re comfortable with an idea, you feel better when you hear information that tells you you’re right,” Shefrin explained. While confirmation bias plays a role in everything from politics to medical diagnosis, it can be especially damaging when it comes to making financial decisions. That’s because people in the grips of confirmation bias truly believe that they’re making an informed decision—and they don’t realize the information they’re basing their choices on has been skewed by their own preconceptions.

Cybersecurity: raising awareness of vulnerabilities in sharing personal information

Helping clients prepare for their financial future goes beyond getting to know them and understanding their goals. Plenty of work goes on behind the scenes. Our staff regularly attends continuing education and training. Most recently, training included raising awareness of vulnerabilities in sharing personal information. This IS something we can share – ways to limit your exposure:

  1. Identifying numbers – avoid taking the bait over the internet or telephone when asked to provide identifying numbers such as driver’s license, Social Security, passport, etc.
  2. Password and signatures – do not send documents containing your signature or passwords over unsecured email or other personal information that will help a scammer recreate your identity.
  3. Addresses – our addresses are so readily identifiable today and if matched to personal information announcements such as vacations or events, we have opened ourselves to unwelcome visitors. Avoid announcing your schedule.
  4. Current, previous or alternate names – again, readily identifiable information that a scammer may use to their advantage in becoming familiar with your past to provide security answers, such as maiden names.
  5. Employment details – descriptions of your new job or promotions may target you for manipulation by those posing as vendors or co-workers to take advantage of your access to sensitive information. Don’t expose yourself before you even get started.
  6. Demographics – a web search lets just about anyone know where you live but why advertise it? Social websites where you show your age, gender and lifestyle could invite others wanting to be part of it, including those with nefarious intentions.
  7. History – similar to maiden names used in security questions, information about your hometown, old schools, addresses, hometown, employment can all be pieced together to create a fairly complete picture for impersonating you or compromising your security.
  8. Appearance – back to social media and exposing your lifestyle. Those pictures of yourself can be snipped and used to create a fake profile. Further, they may expose others in the photos including family and friends. Think twice about being included in others’ photos that might get posted and announce your whereabouts or reflect your lifestyle. Tell your children as well.

Use common sense in sharing personal information virtually. Scammers are counting on innocent people not imagining the extremes to which they will go in taking advantage of identity vulnerabilities. Valley National Financial Advisors take securing your personal information seriously. We need your help in protecting it as well. With everyone doing their part, we hope to limit exposure to any compromise.

The Markets This Week

Stock markets around the world slumped 6% right off the bat in 2016, and the two major U.S. indexes—the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Standard & Poor’s 500—suffered their worst opening week in history. The Dow is now in correction territory, off nearly 11% from its high, while the broader S&P 500 is a hairbreadth away, down 9.8% from highs set last May.

A 1.5% drop in the Chinese yuan and a 10% plunge in China’s stock markets combined last week with sliding oil prices to knock down every big equity market on the planet. That giant whooshing sound you heard? More than $2.2 trillion sucked out of global equity markets in just the first four trading days of the year, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett.

Chinese authorities engineered the largest reduction since August in the value of the yuan, much to the markets’ surprise. The move reignited concerns about China’s sagging economic growth, and left investors wondering if the currency will fall further.

Stock-trading halts and severe volatility in China’s market unnerved U.S. investors, but a panic it wasn’t.

In part, that’s because Friday’s report on U.S. job growth was far stronger than expected. The Labor Department said nonfarm payrolls rose by a hefty 292,000 in December. The unemployment rate was flat at 5%. U.S. stocks popped on the news, but later gave up their moderate gains.

The Dow lost 6.2%, or 1,079 points, last week, to 16.346.45, and the S&P dropped 122 points, to 1922.03. The average stock in the S&P 500 index is in a bear market—that is, down 22.6%, according to Bespoke Investment Group. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq plummeted 7.3%, to 4643.63. The MSCI World Index lost 6%.

Some investors consider the turmoil in China, which authorities have been at a loss to combat, to be on par with what the U.S. experienced in 2008, says Michael Yoshikami, CEO of Destination Wealth Management. “That isn’t my view,” he says. The correction and a continuing improvement in employment suggest consumer stocks, such as retailers—down 9% since mid-November—could be an opportunity, he adds. “The jobs data shows the U.S. economy is on track.”

Still, the uncertainty of China’s currency situation is nagging at sentiment, says Joe Saluzzi, co-head of trading at Themis Trading. How long will it last? Is it going to be a drip-drip-drip drop in the yuan or a big devaluation? Does it mean China’s growth continues to slow? “These are the questions being asked,” he says, “and no one knows the answers.”

(Source: Barrons Online)