Medicare enrollees can save hundreds of dollars on premiums and out-of-pocket costs by doing a checkup on their coverage in the weeks to come. But few bother to review what they’ve got or make changes.
If you use traditional fee-for-service Medicare and have a Medigap supplemental plan–and you’re happy with what you have–there’s no need to do anything during annual enrollment. But if you have Part D prescription drug coverage, or are enrolled in Medicare Advantage (the managed care alternative to traditional fee-for-service Medicare), it can pay to kick the tires. Click here to read a comprehensive article and checklist from Morningstar.
Most of the time, the U.S. stock market looks to 3 factors (call them the “pillars” which support the stock market) to support its upward trend – let’s grade each of the pillars.
CONSUMER SPENDING: This grade is A- (very favorable). Favorable activity in the housing market continues to support growth in the level of spending.
THE FED AND ITS POLICIES: This factor is rated A (very favorable). The FED’s recent meeting minutes indicates the Fed probably will remain on a long and slow path to hiking rates.
BUSINESS PROFITABILITY: This factor’s grade is rated aB-(above average). The 3rd calendar quarter earnings will be released during the next 3 weeks. As usual, poor reports will lead to continued investor skittishness, but decent earnings will boost market confidence. And given how bad profit growth has been during the last 6 calendar quarters, we feel we do not need great earnings, just good enough earnings.
OTHER CONCERNS: The “Heat Map” is indicating the U.S. stock market is in OK shape ASSUMING no international crisis. On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the highest level of crisis, we rate these international risks collectively as a 4. These risks deserve our ongoing attention.
Last week, US Stocks and Bonds increased. But Foreign Stocks decreased. During the last 12 months, STOCKS outperformed BONDS.
Returns through 10-21-2016
1-week
Y-T-D
1-Year
3-Years
5-Years
10-Years
Bonds- BarCap Aggregate Index
.3
5.4
4.4
3.8
3.1
4.8
US Stocks-Standard & Poor’s 500
.4
6.6
8.4
9.3
14.0
6.8
Foreign Stocks- MS EAFE Developed Countries
-.5
.0
-2.1
-1.2
5.6
1.4
Source: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized excluding dividends.
The show airs on WDIY Wednesday evenings, from 6-7 p.m. The show is hosted by Valley National’s Laurie Siebert CPA, CFP®, AEP®. This week Laurie and guest Attorney Stanley Vasiliadis will discuss:
“Long-term care as part of retirement and estate planning”
Laurie and Stanley will take your calls on these topics and other inquiries this week. Questions may be submitted early through www.yourfinancialchoices.com by clicking Contact Laurie. This show will be broadcast at the regular time. WDIY is broadcast on FM 88.1 for reception in most of the Lehigh Valley; and, it is broadcast on FM 93.9 in the Easton and Phillipsburg area– or listen to it online from anywhere on the internet. For more information, including how to listen to the show online, check the show’s website www.yourfinancialchoices.com and visit www.wdiy.org.
Equities went up a little, then down a little last week, and by Friday ended up a touch higher than where they had started. Large-cap stocks underperformed, pressured by the rising U.S. dollar. Trading was uninspired, and investors remained on the sidelines.
The major stock indexes rose slightly, snapping a two-week losing streak. The euro hit $1.09, a seven-month low, after the European Central Bank left its accommodative monetary stance unchanged Thursday and didn’t rule out more stimulus in December.
The third-quarter earnings season ground on, but provided little impetus, except for Morgan Stanley, where strong earnings boosted financials, up 1.2% last week. The greenback’s strength hurt mega-caps, such as those in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which tend to get a significant portion of revenue overseas.
The Dow closed at 18,145.71, up seven points, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose eight to 2141.16. The Nasdaq Composite added almost 1%, to 5257.40.
The market seems tired, says Keith Moore, a strategist at FBN Securities, who adds that investors are sitting on their hands, marking time ahead of the U.S. elections. Adam Sarhan, CEO of Sarhan Capital, says that the sideways action also is a consequence of investors waiting for clarity on other issues, such as the vigor of the quarter’s earnings and the Fed’s expected rate hike in December.
The result is “chop city,” as many are hesitant to commit new capital to an aging bull market, yet “every time the market falls, buyers step in,” Sarhan says. “There’s cash on the sidelines that could come in and send stocks higher,” he observes, but the market lacks a bullish catalyst.
The Fed’s likely rate increase, coupled with the ECB’s continued monetary easing, suggests Continental stocks are relative bargains compared with American equities.
Essentially, there are two brains at work among investors: a relatively hopeful one thinking now is a good time to BUY because of continuing jobs growth, the consumer being in good shape, the FED remaining a friend to investors, and a rebounding of manufacturing. But, there is also gloomy “SELL” brain raising the specter of Presidential Election uncertainty and the possibility the FED will raise rates quickly. The two brains alternate in effectiveness causing the markets to wildly fluctuate. Unfortunately, I see these fluctuations continuing until after the Election.
Investors are advised to continue to think of their portfolios as long term and monitor the factors in The “Heat Map” below.
Most of the time, the U.S. stock market looks to 3 factors (call them the “pillars” which support the stock market) to support its upward trend – let’s grade each of the pillars.
CONSUMER SPENDING: This grade is A- (very favorable). Favorable activity in the housing market continues to support growth in the level of spending.
THE FED AND ITS POLICIES: This factor is rated A (very favorable). Last week’s FED meeting means the Fed probably will remain on a long and slow path to hiking rates.
BUSINESS PROFITABILITY: This factor’s grade is increased to aB-(above average). The market’s valuation prices in an improvement in second-half earnings and an impressive rise in 2017 EPS for the S&P 500.
OTHER CONCERNS: The “Heat Map” is indicating the U.S. stock market is in OK shape ASSUMING no international crisis. On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the highest level of crisis, we rate these international risks collectively as a 4. These risks deserve our ongoing attention.
Last week, US Stocks, Foreign Stocks, and Bonds all declined. During the last 12 months, STOCKS outperformed BONDS.
Returns through 10-7-2016
1-week
Y-T-D
1-Year
3-Years
5-Years
10-Years
Bonds- BarCap Aggregate Index
-.5
5.3
4.4
3.8
3.1
4.8
US Stocks-Standard & Poor’s 500
-.6
7.2
10.3
11.1
15.7
7.1
Foreign Stocks- MS EAFE Developed Countries
-.8
.9
.5
.5
6.8
1.7
Source: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized excluding dividends.
The show airs on WDIY Wednesday evenings, from 6-7 p.m. The show is hosted by Valley National’s Laurie Siebert CPA, CFP®, AEP®. This week Laurie will discuss:
“Charitable giving comes in many forms.”
Laurie will take your calls on these topics and other inquiries this week. Questions may be submitted early through www.yourfinancialchoices.com by clicking Contact Laurie. This show will be broadcast at the regular time. WDIY is broadcast on FM 88.1 for reception in most of the Lehigh Valley; and, it is broadcast on FM 93.9 in the Easton and Phillipsburg area– or listen to it online from anywhere on the internet. For more information, including how to listen to the show online, check the show’s website www.yourfinancialchoices.com and visit www.wdiy.org.
