The Markets This Week

It was a good week to be out of U.S. stocks as broad market indexes here gave up ground. That was in marked contrast to major markets around the world, which posted solid rises. After American stocks smoked foreign equities last year, this was a rare week of role reversal.

In sympathy with overseas equities, the largest U.S. companies—which tend to get a good chunk of their sales from international sources—did better. Small-company stocks, typically more domestically focused, fell sharply. Among them, technology and biotech did especially poorly.

Don’t mistake this for the return of the “risk off” trade, since even the MSCI Emerging Markets index—a beaten-down but riskier set of stocks—rose more than 3% last week. World equities, not including the U.S., were up 1.8%; German stocks rose nearly 3%, Japan was up 1.5%.

On these shores, the Standard & Poor’s 500 index dropped nine points to 1857.62. The Nasdaq Composite index lost 121 points, or 2.8%, to 4155.76. The Russell 2000 small-company index dropped 42 points, or 3.5%, to 1151.81. Only the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained, up 0.1%, 20 points, to 16,323.06.

With the quarter about to end, the S&P 500 is essentially flat, a far cry from the 10% rise in the same year-ago period. The bond market continues to confound. Though many have expected interest rates to rise since the Fed announced the tapering in mid-December, bond prices are higher and rates lower. The long end of the Treasury yield curve has flattened a little bit, suggesting bond investors don’t see much in the way of U.S. economic growth. Maybe that’s why some have put their money to work overseas.  (Barrons Online).

Heads Up!

Real estate values have bounced back providing Americans with more
purchasing power.  That is an important
development which supports a stronger economy ahead. 

According to the Federal Reserve Bank, the value of Americans’ equity in their real estate peaked at $10.3 trillion as of 12/31/07, fell to
$6.3 trillion by 12/31/11, and
then climbed back to $10.0 trillion
as of 12/31/13.


The “Heat Map”

Most
of the time the U.S. stock market looks to 3 factors (call them the “pillars”
that support the stock market) to support its upward trend – let’s grade each
of the pillars. 

CONSUMER SPENDING:  I grade this factor a C- (below average).

THE FED AND ITS POLICIES:  I continue to grade this factor an A+ (extremely favorable) because the
FED cannot do much more than it is doing to support the stock market and asset
prices.

BUSINESS PROFITABILITY:  I continue to grade this factor an A (very favorable). 

NOTE:  no change from prior week.

The Economy

Positive
economic reports last week indicated U.S. factory output rose 8%, building
permits jumped 7.7%, 29 of 30 large banks passed their stress tests,
Philadelphia area showed very strong economic strength, and jobs continued to
strengthen.

Some
negative data was reported:  existing
home sales were down in February (weather?), housing starts sunk (weather?),
and National Assn of Home Builders sentiment declined (weather?).


In
summary, manufacturers have built up inventories hoping consumers will spend abnormally
high amounts in the spring.  We will
monitor how well consumers spend and report to you in upcoming issues.

The Numbers

Last week, U.S. Stocks and Foreign Stocks increased but Bonds declined.  During the last 12 months, STOCKS outperformed BONDS.

Returns through 3-21-2014

1-week

Y-T-D

1-Year

3-Years

5-Years

10-Years

Bonds- BarCap Aggregate Index

 -.4

 1.6

  -.1

  3.5

 4.8

4.4

US Stocks-Standard & Poor’s 500

 1.4

 1.5

23.3

15.3

22.0

7.5

Foreign Stocks- MS EAFE Developed Countries

   .1

-2.5

10.8

  3.9

12.1

3.5

Source:
Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future
results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.
Three, five and ten year returns are annualized excluding dividends.

“Your Financial Choices”

“Your
Financial Choices”  The
show airs on WDIY Wednesday evenings, from 6-7 p.m. The show is normally hosted
by Valley National’s Laurie Siebert CPA, CFP®, AEP®.  This week guest host Rod Young CPA, CFP® will discuss:
“Real estate considerations –
homeowner, renter, landlord.”


WDIY is broadcast on FM
88.1 for reception in most of the Lehigh Valley; and, it is broadcast on FM
93.9 in the Easton and Phillipsburg area; and, it is broadcast on FM 93.7 in
the Fogelsville and Macungie area – or listen to it online from anywhere on the
internet.  For more information, including how to listen to the show
online, check the show’s website www.yourfinancialchoices.com and
visit www.wdiy.org.
 

Personal Notes

One of my personal goals is to do what I can to
attract local, Lehigh Valley based talent and keep that talent in the Lehigh
Valley. 

With that objective in mind, we are actively seeking
to hire a select group of entry level professionals from top university
programs and integrate them into Valley National’s expanding “one-stop”
financial services business model. We are looking specifically for individuals
who have a strong desire to stay in the Lehigh Valley area and establish a
long-term career in financial services.  

This Entry Level Professional (ELP) Program allows
for new associates to be immediately integrated into the company’s business
model giving them the skills necessary to serve Valley National’s clients and
grow along with Valley National’s client base. The program includes training,
education and practice of foundations in financial planning, tax preparation,
and investment management.

Last year the company hired two graduates from local
universities into the program: Laura Morganelli, from DeSales University and
Doug Marcincin, from Lehigh University. Both Laura and Doug have since been
integrated into Valley National’s Bethlehem office as Associates.

Applicants
can find more details about the program responsibilities, requirements and
benefits, as well as instructions to apply online at www.valleynationalgroup.com/join-our-team.


The Markets This Week

One bad day of Fed-induced fretting about interest rates didn’t spoil the whole week, and by Friday the broad market had closed up 1.4%. Fading from view—at least for now—is the ratcheting up of sanctions and rancor between the West and Russia over the illegal absorption of Crimea.

Comments from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and chair Janet Yellen on Wednesday suggested the Federal Reserve might raise its funds rate earlier than expected and shook up both stocks and bonds temporarily.

Despite that, on the week the Dow Jones Industrial Average still rose 237 points or 1.5% to 16,302.77. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose 25 point to 1866.52. On Friday the S&P reached a new intraday high of 1883.97 before fading. The Nasdaq Composite index added 31 points, or 0.7%, to 4276.79.

In a policy statement Wednesday, the FOMC hiked guidance for the federal funds rate to 1% at the end of 2015 and 2.25% at 2016’s end, compared to the previous 0.75% to 1.75%, respectively; it’s currently 0-0.25%. The Fed repeated that the funds rate will remain near zero for a “considerable time” after its bond-buying program ends. However, at the press conference afterwards, Yellen was asked to clarify the timing and said it “probably means something on the order of around six months.”

She shocked the market by putting a number on it—six months, notes Frederic Dickson, chief investment strategist at D.A. Davidson. Investors are still mulling whether that was just a rookie mistake or perhaps an inadvertent disclosure of FOMC thinking. Investors know rates are going up, and probably in 2015, yet the subject will likely remain a trip wire for market volatility in coming months (Barrons Online).

Heads Up!

What makes Valley National different? 
As a start Valley National Advisers is a Registered Investment Advisor
firm (“RIA”).  An RIA forms a close
relationship with you – one that is responsive, attentive and personal.  Our advice is based on what’s best for you –
there is no other agenda.  The portfolio
management fees are typically based on a percentage of assets managed.  As your portfolio grows the RIA makes higher
fees so both you and the RIA are pulling the wagon the same direction. 

For more information, let’s look at the three words in “Registered
Investment Advisor” for more meaning:


REGISTERED:  Yes, with the Securities
Exchange Commission.  We have a fiduciary
duty to act in your best interest.


INVESTMENT:  Not only do we invest
your money, but we also help you plan your entire financial picture – such as
your retirement, or children’s education or estate planning. 


ADVISOR:  We are on your side, ready
to offer the advice and guidance you need. 
And we are Independent – no one in a distant corporate headquarters is influencing
us to give you the wrong advice.