The Markets This Week

It’s the middle of the armpit-soaking summer, a time when investors usually lather their portfolios with SPF 50 and let them relax until fall. But traders remained active last week, even as a strong jobs report made it more likely that the Federal Reserve will slow its asset purchases.


The second half of the year has begun, and so far it’s a lot like the first half.


For the week the Dow rose 226.24 points, or 1.52%, to 15,135.84. The Standard & Poor’s 500 added 25.61 points to close at 1631.89, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 76.13 points, or 2.24%, to close at 3479.38.


Bond yields and Treasury notes are still on the rise, with the 10-year yield climbing 0.23 percentage point on the week to 2.72%.


The Labor Department said Friday that the economy added 195,000 jobs in June, and it revised its May and April employment estimates upward by a total of 70,000 jobs. Nonfarm payrolls have now risen by an average of 202,000 jobs per month this year. The market initially hesitated on the news. Job growth appears to be consistent and relatively robust, which means the Fed has another excuse to slow down its asset-buying program. But after that initial hiccup, stocks rose in the afternoon, and the Dow ended the day 147 points higher.


Strategists and investors we talked to this week, however, remained uneasy. As the Fed takes the economy’s training wheels off, there may be considerable wobbles ahead.


“The economy is pretty clearly creating enough jobs for the Fed to begin to taper,” said John Canally, an investment strategist at a major financial services firm. “I’m not so clear that will lead to a stronger economy. The job market might just be playing catch-up. You might get a situation where the Fed is tapering, but GDP growth is still below their forecast” ( Source:  Barrons Online).

Heads Up!

During
the last 6 weeks, stock prices, the bond market prices, and commodities prices all
declined.  This simultaneous decline is
rare.  It has occurred on only 3
occasions in the last 40 years for this length of time.

Their
decline was tied to one concern – the suspicion the FED will soon end its period of easy monetary policy.


We think the reaction
is overdone.  See the commentary below under
“The FED and Its Policies” for more details. 
We believe the stock market will rebound because the 3 factors that
generally support it are strong (see the “The Heat Map” for these three
factors).  Over the next 3 to 5 weeks, we
suspect interest rates will drop, bond prices will increase.  However, in the long term, we suspect
interest rates will trend higher and bond prices lower. 

Heads Up!

DETROIT:  it appears the biggest bankruptcy in municipal history is just around the corner.  The city’s emergency manager says Detroit is insolvent and it plans to suspend debt payments which could trigger a Chapter 9 Bankruptcy filing in a matter of months. 



Municipal bond investors have known for some time that Detroit was in trouble.  Detroit’s municipal bond prices have fallen dramatically.  But, it remains unclear to what extent this most recent development is factored into the nationwide municipal bond pricing.

The Numbers

 Last week, U.S. Stocks and Foreign stocks increased.  Bond decreased.  During the last 12 months, STOCKS outperformed BONDS.   

 LAST WEEK-Here is a look the cause of the volatility created this week by hedge funds, institutions, and those we call “traders”.




































Returns through 4-19-2013


1-week


Y-T-D


1-Year


3-Years


5-Years


10-Years


Bonds- BarCap Aggregate Index


 -.3


.6


3.3


5.5


5.7


5.0


US Stocks-Standard & Poor’s 500


 2.1


13.9


18.7


12.7


5.0


7.8


Foreign Stocks- MS EAFE Developed Countries


 1.2


9.1


16.4


4.4


-4.1


6.2


Source: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized excluding dividends.