The Economy

Last week one significant negative economic report was a very disappointing jobs report. Financial experts are in disagreement as to its implications. Here is one expert’s opinion that seems to make sense:

Known for his bullish outlook on the U.S. stock market, Fundstrat Global Advisors founder Tom Lee is not overly worried about Friday’s disappointing jobs report. He said, however, that it would be cause for concern if the sluggish pace of economic growth in the first quarter continues in the second quarter.

Government data showed on Friday the United States added just 126,000 jobs in March, well below consensus estimates for 245,000 new positions and the weakest report since December 2013. Lee noted that U.S. gross domestic product growth is currently tracking below the Federal Reserve’s expectation of at least 2 percent.

“I think if Q2 is tracking at the same level we’d have to worry, but I think that a lot of these are temporary factors,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” “The dollar (Exchange: .DXY) is reversing, construction was a drag in the first quarter, government was a drag. We don’t expect to see these the rest of the year.”

The question investors need to keep in mind, Lee said, is whether there is pent-up demand in the United States and whether the economy is capable of generating organic growth.

While capital spending was also weak in the first quarter, Lee expects U.S. producers to utilize more of their capacity, which is often a precursor to capital spending.

The Economy

Last week the negative economic reports exceeded the positive. Following is a quick summary of the events:

Positives:

  1. Building permits rose 3% vs an expected rise of 0.5%.
  2. The Fed removed “patient” and US stocks rose 1.2%

Negatives:

  1. Housing starts fell 17% to an annualized pace of 987k vs expectations for a 2.4% fall and 1.04mm homes.
  2. Empire State factory index came in at 6.9, vs expectations of 8 and down from 7.8 previously.
  3. The Philly Fed index came in at 5.0 vs expectations of 7.
  4. The ten-year yield is back below 2%
  5. Mortgage applications fell 2% week over week.
  6. Mortgage Refinancing applications fell 5%.
  7. Industrial production rose 0.1% month over month vs expectations of a 0.3% rise.

The Economy

Last week the positive economic reports exceeded the negative. Following is a quick summary of the events:

Positives:

  1. Initial jobless claims fell to 289k vs estimates of 305k.
  2. Consumer Price Index in China rose 1.4% year over year, higher than expected.
  3. National Federation of Independent Business small business optimism index came in at 98.
  4. Mortgage Brokers Association purchase applications rose 1.9%.
  5. Import prices fell 9.4% year over year, a win for the consumer.

Negatives:

  1. Core US retail sales fell 0.2% vs an expected rise of 0.3%.
  2. Headline Producer Price Index fell 0.5%, way more than the expected 0.3% rise. The disinflation theme continues. Core price index also fell 0.5%.
  3. University of Michigan consumer sentiment fell to 91.2 to a four-month low and below the 95.5 expected.
  4. Refinance applications fell 2.9%.

The Economy

Last week the positive economic reports exceeded the negative. Following are the positives:

  1. Durable goods orders increased 2.8% vs 1.6% expected
  2. Case-Shiller home prices rose 0.87% month over month and 4.46% year over year, both above estimates.
  3. Core consumer prices rose 0.2% month over month vs +0.1% expected.
  4. Pending home sales grew 1.7%, less than the 2% expected gain but still hit 18-month highs.
  5. Revised Q4 Gross Domestic Product came in at +2.2%, down from the 2.6% initially estimated but better than the 2% expected revision.
  6. University of Michigan consumer confidence came in at 95.4, higher than expected.

Negatives:

  1. Chicago Purchasing Mangers Index fell to 45.8 vs expectations of 59.4, lowest since July 2009.
  2. Existing home sales fell 4.9% month over month vs expectations of a 1.8% decline
  3. US initial jobless claims rose 31k to 313k last week vs 290k expected.
  4. Dallas fed manufacturing index fell to -11.2, down from -4.4 in January and below the expected reading of -4
  5. S. oil rigs decline for the 12th straight week.

The Economy

Economic reports were sparse last week. The negative economic news exceeded the positive. Here is a recap:

Positives:

  1. Import prices declined 8% year over year.

Negatives:

  1. Initial jobless claims came in at 304k vs expectations of 287k.
  2. Retail sales ex-autos and gasoline gained just 0.2% vs the expected 0.4%.
  3. Mortgage applications fell for the fourth straight week.
  4. University of Michigan Consumer Confidence fell to 93.6 from 98.1.

The Economy

Last week the positive economic news exceeded the negative. Here is a recap:

Positives:

  1. January Nonfarm Payrolls came in at an increase of 257k vs 228k expected.
  2. Eurozone retail sales were up 2.8% in December, the strongest in almost 8 years.
  3. Average hourly earnings in the U.S. grew at 2.2% vs 1.9% expected.
  4. Eurozone growth came in at 52.6, a six-month high.
  5. Big revisions to the previous six months added another 102k jobs.
  6. Oil stopped crashing, it finished the week up 8.5%.

Negatives:

  1. January unemployment ticked up a bit to 5.7% from 5.6%.
  2. Interest rate sensitive Utilities got roughed up on Friday, having their worst day since August 2011.
  3. Institute of Supply Managers index came in at 53.5, down from 55.1 and below the 54.5 expected.
  4. Purchase applications fell for the third straight week.

The Economy

Last week the negative economic news exceeded the positive. Here are the positive news releases:

  1. Weekly jobless claims fell 43,000 to 265,000, the lowest since 2000!
  2. Personal consumption came in at 4.3% vs 4% expected.
  3. Chicago Purchasing Managers Index came in at 59.4 vs the 57.5 expected.
  4. University of Michigan consumer confidence came in at 98.1, a hair below expectations but still strong and up from 93.6 in December.

Here are the Negatives:

  1. US Q4 real Gross Domestic Product came in at 2.6% annualized vs 3% expected.
  2. Durable goods fell 3.4% month over month, below expectations and down from the 2.1% decline in November.
  3. Yields keep falling around here and around the globe; 30 year hits lowest yields ever.
  4. Dallas fed manufacturing index came in at -4.4 vs 3 expected.
  5. Germany, Europe’s largest economy fell 0.3% month over month, the first negative print since 2009.
  6. Pending home sales fell 3.7% month over month.

The Economy

Last week Negative economic news exceeded positive news. The Positives:

  1. The U.S. Economy added 252,000 jobs in December.
  2. Unemployment rate fell to 5.6%; Revisions to the jobs report added 50,000 jobs to each of the prior past two months.
  3. S. consumer confidence jumped to a seven-year high;
  4. Vehicle sales came in at annual sales rate of 16,800,000, slightly lower than the 16.9mm expected but still strong and above the 12-month average.

Following are the Negative economic reports:

  1. Average hourly earnings fell 0.2% month over month.
  2. Wages rose just 1.7% year over year, well below the 2.2% expected and the weakest readings since October 2012.
  3. Factory orders fell 0.7% in November, vs the 0.5% expected decline.
  4. December was the first time ever that all ten components of the Institute of Supply Management services report declined.
  5. Institute of Supply Management non-manufacturing PM came in at 56.2, vs the 58 expected.
  6. Labor Participation Rate fell to 62.7%, levels not seen since 1977.

The Economy

“Calculated Risk,” a well-known financial blog, offers up the following 10 economic questions for 2015:

1) Economic growth: Even with contraction in Q1, 2014 was a decent year (GDP will grow around 2.4% in 2014). Will 2015 be the best year of the recovery so far?

2) Employment: With one month to go, 2014 is already the best year for employment growth since the ’90s.   Will 2015 be as strong?

3) Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate was at 5.8% in November, down 1.2 percentage points year-over-year. What will the unemployment rate be in December 2014?

4) Inflation: The inflation rate is still running well below the Fed’s 2% target. Will too much inflation be a concern in 2015?

5) Monetary Policy: The Fed completed QE3 in 2014, and now the question is will the Fed raise rates in 2015?

6) Real Wage Growth: Will real wages increase in 2015?

7) Oil Prices: Declining oil prices and falling bond yields were two of the biggest stories of 2014. Will oil prices continue to decline in 2015?

8) Residential Investment: Residential investment (RI) picked was up solidly in 2012 and 2013 – up 13.5% and 11.9% respectively – but RI was only up 1.6% through Q3 2014.   Note: RI is mostly investment in new single family structures, multifamily structures, home improvement and commissions on existing home sales. How much will RI increase in 2015?

9) House Prices: It appears house prices will be up about 5% or so in 2014 (after increasing about 12% nationally in 2013).   What will happen with house prices in 2015?

10) Housing Inventory: It appears housing inventory bottomed in early 2013. Will inventory increase further in 2015, and, if so, by how much?

The Economy

Last week, good news coming from economic reports far outweighed bad news. Here is a bullet point listing of the good news:

  • Average gasoline prices fell to $2.60, the lowest levels since 2009, as Crude Oil continues to crash.
  • S. retail sales rose 0.6% month over month, better then he 0.5% expected rise.
  • Consumer confidence came in at 93.88, which was the biggest beat relative to expectations since December 2013.
  • Initial jobless claims came in at 294k, down 3k from last week and a touch lower than expected.
  • Mortgage Bankers Association refinancing applications rose 13.2% week over week.

On the negative side, Producer prices fell 0.2%, bigger than the 0.1% expected decline.