The Numbers & “Heat Map”

Posted on August 18, 2020 by The Weekly Commentary

THE NUMBERS
Sources: Index Returns: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized. Interest Rates: Federal Reserve, Mortgage Bankers Association

MARKET HEAT MAP
The health of the economy is a key driver of long-term returns in the stock market. Below, we assess the key economic conditions that we believe are of particular importance to investors.

US ECONOMY
CONSUMER HEALTH	NEGATIVE	GDP declined at an annualized rate of 32.9% in Q2, the fourth-largest fall in the last 100 years. Although the figure is staggering, it was in-line with economists’ expectations. Retail sales increased 1.2% in July; a healthy mid-pandemic result, but sharply below June’s 7.5% rise.
CORPORATE EARNINGS	VERY NEGATIVE	S&P 500 earnings have fallen by around 33% in Q2, the sharpest year-over-year decline since 2008.
EMPLOYMENT	VERY NEGATIVE	1.8 million jobs were added in the U.S. during July. While gains, rather than losses, are welcomed, the figure represents a considerable deceleration from the 4.8 million jobs added in June. Unemployment remains very high at 10.2%.
INFLATION	POSITIVE	Core inflation increased 0.6% in July, the largest one-month jump since 1991. However, on an annualized basis, CPI is running at a moderate 1.6%, below the Fed’s 2% target. More sustained indications of inflation will be necessary before the central bank curbs its uber-stimulative policies.
FISCAL POLICY	VERY POSITIVE	In light of the expiration of federally granted, weekly unemployment support, and an absence of congressional progress towards the next round of stimulus, President Trump signed an executive order provisioning fiscal support. However, the legality of the order, and whether it will actually come into effect, are in question.
MONETARY POLICY	VERY POSITIVE	The Federal Reserve has supported asset markets with unprecedented speed and magnitude in response to COVID-19.
GLOBAL CONSIDERATIONS
GEOPOLITICAL RISKS	VERY NEGATIVE	The relationship between the US and China, the world’s two largest economies, was already weakened by the trade war but has deteriorated further as a result of COVID-19.
ECONOMIC RISKS	VERY NEGATIVE	The impacts from COVID-19 were as swift and pronounced as any shock in modern times. Robust monetary and fiscal stimulus stabilized the system, however, economic activity remains well-below that in 2019, and uncertainty remains very high.

The “Heat Map” is a subjective analysis based upon metrics that VNFA’s investment committee believes are important to financial markets and the economy. The “Heat Map” is designed for informational purposes only and is not intended for use as a basis for investment decisions.

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

Posted on August 11, 2020 by The Weekly Commentary

US ECONOMY
CONSUMER HEALTH	NEGATIVE	GDP declined at an annualized rate of 32.9% in Q2, the fourth-largest fall in the last 100 years. Although the figure is staggering, it was in-line with economists’ expectations.
CORPORATE EARNINGS	VERY NEGATIVE	S&P 500 earnings have fallen by around 33% in Q2, the sharpest year-over-year decline since 2008.
EMPLOYMENT	VERY NEGATIVE	1.8 million jobs were added in the U.S. during July. While gains, rather than losses, are welcomed, the figure represents a considerable deceleration from the 4.8 million jobs added in June. Unemployment remains very high at 10.2%.
INFLATION	POSITIVE	The deflationary environment created by COVID-19 should provide additional room for robust stimulus from both fiscal and monetary policy initiatives. However, we will be watching closely in the intermediate term for second and third order effects leading to a return of inflationary pressure.
FISCAL POLICY	VERY POSITIVE	In light of the expiration of federally granted, weekly unemployment support, and an absence of congressional progress towards the next round of stimulus, President Trump signed an executive order over the weekend provisioning fiscal support. However, the legality of the order, and whether it will actually come into effect, are in question.
MONETARY POLICY	VERY POSITIVE	The Federal Reserve has supported asset markets with unprecedented speed and magnitude in response to COVID-19.
GLOBAL CONSIDERATIONS
GEOPOLITICAL RISKS	VERY NEGATIVE	The relationship between the US and China, the world’s two largest economies, was already weakened by the trade war but has deteriorated further as a result of COVID-19.
ECONOMIC RISKS	VERY NEGATIVE	The impacts from COVID-19 were as swift and pronounced as any shock in modern times. Robust monetary and fiscal stimulus stabilized the system, and several measures of the economy improved in May and June. However, economic activity remains well-below that in 2019, and uncertainty remains very high.

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

Posted on August 4, 2020 by The Weekly Commentary

US ECONOMY
CONSUMER HEALTH	NEGATIVE	GDP declined at an annualized rate of 32.9% in Q2, the fourth-largest fall in the last 100 years. Although the figure is staggering, it was in-line with economists’ expectations.
CORPORATE EARNINGS	VERY NEGATIVE	Earnings have declined by 36% thus far in Q2, the sharpest year-over-year decline since 2008.
EMPLOYMENT	VERY NEGATIVE	Non-farm payroll increased by 4.8 million jobs in June, led by the Leisure & Hospitality sector, as the unemployment rate declined to 11.1%. However, the unemployment rate remains historically high and is still 7.6% higher than it was in February.
INFLATION	POSITIVE	The deflationary environment created by COVID-19 should provide additional room for robust stimulus from both fiscal and monetary policy initiatives. However, we will be watching closely in the intermediate term for second and third order effects leading to a return of inflationary pressure.
FISCAL POLICY	VERY POSITIVE	Unemployment benefits, which have been instrumental in stabilizing the economy, expired at July’s end. Congress is working to pass another fiscal package; however, the two parties remain distant on the appropriate size of the stimulus.
MONETARY POLICY	VERY POSITIVE	The Federal Reserve has supported asset markets with unprecedented speed and magnitude in response to COVID-19.
GLOBAL CONSIDERATIONS
GEOPOLITICAL RISKS	VERY NEGATIVE	The relationship between the US and China, the world’s two largest economies, was already weakened by the trade war but has deteriorated further as a result of Covid-19.
ECONOMIC RISKS	VERY NEGATIVE	The impacts from COVID-19 were as swift and pronounced as any shock in modern times. Robust monetary and fiscal stimulus stabilized the system, and several measures of the economy improved in May and June. However, economic activity remains well-below that in 2019, and uncertainty remains very high.

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

Posted on July 28, 2020 by The Weekly Commentary

US ECONOMY
CONSUMER HEALTH	NEGATIVE	In June, retail sales increased by 5.4% month-over-month while new home sales were up 55% compared to last year, the largest increase in ten years, as consumers take advantage of historically low mortgage rates.
CORPORATE EARNINGS	VERY NEGATIVE	Q2 is expected to represent the low point of corporate earnings during this recession, with profits forecasted to fall 44%, the largest decline since 2008. According to Blackrock, U.S. corporate earnings are unlikely to intersect with the path that they would have taken, had COVID-19 never occurred, until the end of the decade.
EMPLOYMENT	VERY NEGATIVE	Non-farm payroll increased by 4.8 million jobs in June, led by the Leisure & Hospitality sector, as the unemployment rate declined to 11.1%. However, the unemployment rate remains historically high and is still 7.6% higher than it was in February.
INFLATION	POSITIVE	The deflationary environment created by COVID-19 should provide additional room for robust stimulus from both fiscal and monetary policy initiatives. However, we will be watching closely in the intermediate term for second and third order effects leading to a return of inflationary pressure.
FISCAL POLICY	VERY POSITIVE	Unemployment benefits, which have been instrumental in stabilizing the economy, are set to expire at July’s end. Though Congress is expected to pass another round of unemployment assistance, the size and duration of future benefits is unknown.
MONETARY POLICY	VERY POSITIVE	The Federal Reserve has supported asset markets with unprecedented speed and magnitude in respond to COVID-19. Monetary stimulus is perhaps the primary reason why equity markets have rallied over the three past months.
GLOBAL CONSIDERATIONS
GEOPOLITICAL RISKS	VERY NEGATIVE	The relationship between the US and China, the world’s two largest economies, was already weakened by the trade war but has deteriorated further as a result of Covid-19. Given both countries’ importance in the global economy, the status of relations between the two superpowers is worth monitoring.
ECONOMIC RISKS	VERY NEGATIVE	The impacts from COVID-19 were as swift and pronounced as any shock in modern times. Robust monetary and fiscal stimulus stabilized the system, and several measures of the economy improved in May and June. However, economic activity remains well-below that in 2019, and uncertainty remains very high.

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

Posted on July 21, 2020 by The Weekly Commentary

US ECONOMY
CONSUMER HEALTH	NEGATIVE	In June, retail sales increased by 5.4% month-over-month while new home sales were up 55% compared to last year, the largest increase in ten years, as consumers take advantage of historically low mortgage rates.
CORPORATE EARNINGS	VERY NEGATIVE	Q2 is expected to represent the low-point of corporate earnings during this recession, with profits forecasted to fall 44%, the largest decline since 2008. According to Blackrock, U.S. corporate earnings are unlikely to intersect with the path that they would have taken, had COVID-19 never occurred, until the end of the decade.
EMPLOYMENT	VERY NEGATIVE	Non-farm payroll increased by 4.8 million jobs in June, led by the Leisure & Hospitality sector, as the unemployment rate declined to 11.1%. However, the unemployment rate remains historically high and is still 7.6% higher than it was in February.
INFLATION	POSITIVE	The deflationary environment created by COVID-19 should provide additional room for robust stimulus from both fiscal and monetary policy initiatives. However, we will be watching closely in the intermediate term for second and third order effects leading to a return of inflationary pressure.
FISCAL POLICY	VERY POSITIVE	Unemployment benefits, which have been instrumental in stabilizing the economy, are set to expire at July’s end. Though Congress is expected to pass another round of unemployment assistance, the size and duration of future benefits is unknown.
MONETARY POLICY	VERY POSITIVE	The Federal Reserve has supported asset markets with unprecedented speed and magnitude in respond to COVID-19. Monetary stimulus is perhaps the primary reason why equity markets have rallied over the three past months.
GLOBAL CONSIDERATIONS
GEOPOLITICAL RISKS	VERY NEGATIVE	The relationship between the US and China, the world’s two largest economies, was already weakened by the trade war but has deteriorated further as a result of Covid-19. Given both countries’ importance in the global economy, the status of relations between the two superpowers is worth monitoring.
ECONOMIC RISKS	VERY NEGATIVE	The impacts from COVID-19 were as swift and pronounced as any shock in modern times. Robust monetary and fiscal stimulus stabilized the system, and several measures of the economy improved in May and June. However, economic activity remains well-below that in 2019, and uncertainty remains very high.

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

Posted on July 14, 2020 by The Weekly Commentary

US ECONOMY
CONSUMER HEALTH	NEGATIVE	May’s retail sales and consumer spending rebounded at record clips month-over-month, following unprecedented declines in April. However, new coronavirus cases in the US are accelerating, which threatens to rescind the gains in consumer confidence.
CORPORATE EARNINGS	VERY NEGATIVE	According to forecasts by Blackrock, U.S. corporate earnings are unlikely to intersect with the path that they would have taken, had COVID-19 never occurred, until the end of the decade. However, Blackrock now expects higher equity returns over the prospective ten years than they did in December 2019 because of lower interest rates.
EMPLOYMENT	VERY NEGATIVE	Non-farm payroll increased by 4.8 million jobs in June, led by the Leisure & Hospitality sector, as the unemployment rate declined to 11.1%. However, the unemployment rate remains historically high and is still 7.6% higher than it was in February.
INFLATION	POSITIVE	The deflationary environment created by COVID-19 should provide additional room for robust stimulus from both fiscal and monetary policy initiatives. However, we will be watching closely in the intermediate term for second and third order effects leading to a return of inflationary pressure.
FISCAL POLICY	VERY POSITIVE	The US Government has passed a series of fiscal measures to combat the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The largest of these measures, known as the CARES Act, provides approximately $2.2 trillion of support for businesses and families that are impacted by business closures and unemployment.
MONETARY POLICY	VERY POSITIVE	The Federal Reserve has supported asset markets with unprecedented speed and magnitude in respond to COVID-19. Monetary stimulus is perhaps the primary reason why equity markets have rallied over the three past months.
GLOBAL CONSIDERATIONS
GEOPOLITICAL RISKS	VERY NEGATIVE	Western opposition to China’s National Security Law, legislation that reduces Hong Kong’s autonomy, has amplified the discord already present between the US and China as a result of COVID-19. In addition, demonstrations across the US evidence considerable domestic unrest.
ECONOMIC RISKS	VERY NEGATIVE	The impacts from COVID-19 were as swift and pronounced as any shock in modern times. Robust monetary and fiscal stimulus stabilized the system, and several measures of the economy improved in May and June. However, economic activity remains well-below that in 2019, and uncertainty remains very high.

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

Posted on July 7, 2020 by The Weekly Commentary

US ECONOMY
CONSUMER HEALTH	NEGATIVE	May’s retail sales and consumer spending rebounded at record clips month-over-month, following unprecedented declines in April. However, new coronavirus cases in the US are accelerating as social activity has increased, which threatens to rescind the gains in consumer confidence.
CORPORATE EARNINGS	VERY NEGATIVE	Coming into the year, analysts were expecting mid to single digit earnings growth, but the spread of COVID-19 is likely to have a substantial impact on near-term earnings forecasts. However, earnings could bounce back quickly once the pandemic has run its course.
EMPLOYMENT	VERY NEGATIVE	Non-farm payroll increased by 4.8 million jobs in June, led by the Leisure & Hospitality sector, as the unemployment rate declined to 11.1%. However, the unemployment rate remains historically high and is still 7.6% higher than it was in February.
INFLATION	POSITIVE	The deflationary environment created by COVID-19 should provide additional room for robust stimulus from both fiscal and monetary policy initiatives. However, we will be watching closely in the intermediate term for second and third order effects leading to a return of inflationary pressure.
FISCAL POLICY	VERY POSITIVE	The US Government has passed a series of fiscal measures to combat the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The largest of these measures, known as the CARES Act, provides approximately $2.2 trillion of support for businesses and families that are impacted by business closures and unemployment.
MONETARY POLICY	VERY POSITIVE	In response to the threat of COVID-19, the Federal Reserve has implemented two emergency rate cuts and has moved its target interest rate back to zero. Additionally, it has announced its intention to conduct further asset purchases to support markets. We believe that the Fed is doing all it can to support the economy and markets.
GLOBAL CONSIDERATIONS
GEOPOLITICAL RISKS	VERY NEGATIVE	Western opposition to China’s National Security Law, legislation that reduces Hong Kong’s autonomy, has amplified the discord already present between the US and China as a result of COVID-19. In addition, demonstrations across the US evidence considerable domestic unrest.
ECONOMIC RISKS	VERY NEGATIVE	The economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to be substantial. However, we believe that the eventual economic recovery (which will be aided by historically large economic stimulus) may occur more swiftly than from previous economic shocks.

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

Posted on June 30, 2020 by The Weekly Commentary

US ECONOMY

CONSUMER HEALTH

NEGATIVE

May’s retail sales and consumer spending rebounded at record clips month-over-month, following unprecedented declines in April. However, new coronavirus cases in the US are accelerating as social activity has increased, which threatens to rescind the gains in consumer

confidence.

CORPORATE EARNINGS

VERY NEGATIVE

Coming into the year, analysts were expecting mid to single digit earnings growth, but the spread of COVID-19 is likely to have a substantial impact on near-term earnings forecasts. However, earnings could bounce back quickly once the pandemic has run its course.

EMPLOYMENT

VERY NEGATIVE

2.5 million jobs were added in May, in large part driven by the return of furloughed workers. The figure represents the greatest monthly increase in jobs since at least 1939, and a stark divergence from economic consensus which expected further unemployment. Nonetheless,

the jobless rate remains historically high at 13.3%.

INFLATION

POSITIVE

The deflationary environment created by COVID-19 should provide additional room for robust stimulus from both fiscal and monetary policy initiatives. However, we will be watching closely in the intermediate term for second and third order effects leading to a return of

inflationary pressure.

FISCAL POLICY

VERY POSITIVE

The US Government has passed a series of fiscal measures to combat the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The largest of these measures, known as the CARES Act, provides approximately $2.2 trillion of support for businesses and families that are impacted by

business closures and unemployment.

MONETARY POLICY

VERY POSITIVE

In response to the threat of COVID-19, the Federal Reserve has implemented two emergency rate cuts and has moved its target interest rate back to zero. Additionally, it has announced its intention to conduct further asset purchases to support markets. We believe that the Fed

is doing all it can to support the economy and markets.

GLOBAL CONSIDERATIONS

GEOPOLITICAL RISKS

VERY NEGATIVE

Western opposition to China’s National Security Law, legislation that reduces Hong Kong’s autonomy, has amplified the discord already present between the US and China as a result of COVID-19. In addition, demonstrations across the US evidence considerable domestic unrest.

ECONOMIC RISKS

VERY NEGATIVE

The economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to be substantial. However, we believe that the eventual economic recovery (which will be aided by historically large economic stimulus) may occur more swiftly than from previous economic shocks.

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

Posted on June 23, 2020 by The Weekly Commentary

US ECONOMY
CONSUMER HEALTH	NEGATIVE	Consumer activity has elevated since April’s trough, as evidenced by May’s retail sales which grew strongly month-over-month. However, 23 states reported an increasing number of COVID-19 cases in the last week, including 12 states who set daily records for cases.
CORPORATE EARNINGS	VERY NEGATIVE	Coming into the year, analysts were expecting mid to single digit earnings growth, but the spread of COVID-19 is likely to have a substantial impact on near-term earnings forecasts. However, earnings could bounce back quickly once the pandemic has run its course.
EMPLOYMENT	VERY NEGATIVE	2.5 million jobs were added in May, in large part driven by the return of furloughed workers. The figure represents the greatest monthly increase in jobs since at least 1939, and a stark divergence from economic consensus which expected further unemployment. Nonetheless, the jobless rate remains historically high at 13.3%.
INFLATION	POSITIVE	The deflationary environment created by COVID-19 should provide additional room for robust stimulus from both fiscal and monetary policy initiatives. However, we will be watching closely in the intermediate term for second and third order effects leading to a return of inflationary pressure.
FISCAL POLICY	VERY POSITIVE	The US Government has passed a series of fiscal measures to combat the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The largest of these measures, known as the CARES Act, provides approximately $2.2 trillion of support for businesses and families that are impacted by business closures and unemployment.
MONETARY POLICY	VERY POSITIVE	In response to the threat of COVID-19, the Federal Reserve has implemented two emergency rate cuts and has moved its target interest rate back to zero. Additionally, it has announced its intention to conduct further asset purchases to support markets. We believe that the Fed is doing all it can to support the economy and markets.
GLOBAL CONSIDERATIONS
GEOPOLITICAL RISKS	VERY NEGATIVE	Western opposition to China’s National Security Law, legislation that reduces Hong Kong’s autonomy, has amplified the discord already present between the US and China as a result of COVID-19. In addition, demonstrations across the US evidence considerable domestic unrest.
ECONOMIC RISKS	VERY NEGATIVE	The economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to be substantial. However, we believe that the eventual economic recovery (which will be aided by historically large economic stimulus) may occur more swiftly than from previous economic shocks.

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

Posted on June 16, 2020 by The Weekly Commentary

US ECONOMY
CONSUMER HEALTH	NEGATIVE	Social distancing has slackened in recent weeks as states reopen, Americans appear increasingly comfortable with travel and large gatherings occur via demonstrations. The extent to which these events will impact the spread of COVID-19, and thereby economic activity, will be discerned over the coming weeks.
CORPORATE EARNINGS	VERY NEGATIVE	Coming into the year, analysts were expecting mid to single digit earnings growth, but the spread of COVID-19 is likely to have a substantial impact on near-term earnings forecasts. However, earnings could bounce back quickly once the pandemic has run its course.
EMPLOYMENT	VERY NEGATIVE	2.5 million jobs were added in May, in large part driven by the return of furloughed workers. The figure represents the greatest monthly increase in jobs since at least 1939, and a stark divergence from economic consensus which expected further unemployment. Nonetheless, the jobless rate remains historically high at 13.3%.
INFLATION	POSITIVE	The deflationary environment created by COVID-19 should provide additional room for robust stimulus from both fiscal and monetary policy initiatives. However, we will be watching closely in the intermediate term for second and third order effects leading to a return of inflationary pressure.
FISCAL POLICY	VERY POSITIVE	The US Government has passed a series of fiscal measures to combat the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The largest of these measures, known as the CARES Act, provides approximately $2.2 trillion of support for businesses and families that are impacted by business closures and unemployment.
MONETARY POLICY	VERY POSITIVE	In response to the threat of COVID-19, the Federal Reserve has implemented two emergency rate cuts and has moved its target interest rate back to zero. Additionally, it has announced its intention to conduct further asset purchases to support markets. We believe that the Fed is doing all it can to support the economy and markets.
GLOBAL CONSIDERATIONS
GEOPOLITICAL RISKS	VERY NEGATIVE	Western opposition to China’s National Security Law, legislation that reduces Hong Kong’s autonomy, has amplified the discord already present between the US and China as a result of COVID-19. In addition, demonstrations across the US evidence considerable domestic unrest.
ECONOMIC RISKS	VERY NEGATIVE	The economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to be substantial. However, we believe that the eventual economic recovery (which will be aided by historically large economic stimulus) may occur more swiftly than from previous economic shocks.

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The Weekly Commentary

Observations of the current state of the stock and bond markets

Category Archives: The “Heat Map”

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

The Numbers & “Heat Map”