Update – Washington

The U.S. stock market has jumped since the November 8th election. We identified 4 initiatives on which the U.S. stock market is speculating to be successfully accomplished early in the Trump administration.  What will happen next? TBD.

The 4 initiatives will have a tremendous influence on the “Heat Map” which forms the basis of our forward looking view of the U.S. economy. We consider the success or failure of the 4 initiatives to be “leading” indicators for the Heat Map.

Below are the 4 Trump administration initiatives upon which the stock market is speculating and what progress, if any, has been made:

  1. Tax cuts and tax reforms benefiting most individuals and businesses- NO PROGRESS RECENTLY. CUMULATIVE PROGRESS TOWARD GOAL: 0%
  1. Infrastructure spending of up to $1 Trillion over the upcoming 7 to 10 years. NO PROGRESS RECENTLY. CUMULATIVE PROGRESS TOWARD GOAL: 0%
  1. Affordable Care Act amendment, reform or reorganization. THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES FAILED TO PASS LEGISLATION TO REVISE IT. NO TIMETABLE HAS BEEN PRESENTED TO RE-INTRODUCE THIS LEGISLATION SO THE CUMULATIVE PROGRESS TOWARD THIS GOAL IS 0%.
  1. Roll back of government regulations and Executive Orders considered to be difficult for businesses. ROLL BACKS HAVE CONTINUED. CUMULATIVE PROGRESS TOWARD GOAL: 20%

As the action happens in Washington on these 4 initiatives, don’t be surprised if the political “tug and pull” contest results in a wilder than normal stock and bond market.

We will continue to report in future issues on the progress on each initiative.

Special Alert!

House Republicans stumbled in their first major attempt to reshape the U.S. government under President Donald Trump, as their long-promised health-care bill failed despite days of personal lobbying by the president and Speaker Paul Ryan. The fate of the bill could set a trajectory for the rest of Mr. Trump’s presidency. At issue is whether he can push ambitious goals through a Congress his party controls.

But, the U.S. stock market has already speculated the Affordable Care Act would pass, as well as, the legislation to cut income taxes, and the legislation to spend up to $1 Trillion on infrastructure.

Given the recent increase in equity values since the election and inauguration of President Trump, we want to caution investors to expect stock market volatility as Mr. Trump’s political agenda unfolds. Should the remainder of his legislative plan meet the same fate as the ACA bill, the downside risks of the stock market may outweigh its upside potential.

Per our previous weekly commentary dated February 23, 2017, we continue to recommend clients hold 12-18 months portfolio spending in cash or short term fixed investments. Additionally, if you have not contacted us since the 2/23/2017 Weekly Commentary,  we suggest setting up a 15 minute telephone call to re-evaluate your long term portfolio risk and asset allocation. In some cases, no changes will be needed as we are actively managing your portfolio risk. But it is our experience that being proactive in times of market uncertainty helps achieve long term success. Please contact our office at 610-868-9000 to set up a telephone appointment.

Update – Washington

The U.S. stock market has jumped since the November 8th election.  We identified 4 initiatives on which the U.S. stock market is speculating to be successfully accomplished early in the Trump administration.  What will happen next? TBD

The 4 initiatives will have a tremendous influence on the “Heat Map” which forms the basis of our forward looking view of the U.S. economy.  I consider the success or failure of the 4 initiatives to be “leading” indicators for the Heat Map.

Below are the 4 Trump administration initiatives upon which the stock market is speculating and what progress, if any, has been made:

  1. Tax cuts and tax reforms benefiting most individuals and businesses- NO PROGRESS RECENTLY.  CUMULATIVE PROGRESS TOWARD GOAL: 0%

  2. Infrastructure spending of up to $1 Trillion over the upcoming 7 to 10 years.  NO PROGRESS RECENTLY.  CUMULATIVE PROGRESS TOWARD GOAL: 0%

  3. Affordable Care Act amendment, reform or reorganization. THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES FAILED TO PASS LEGISLATION TO REVISE IT. NO TIMETABLE HAS BEEN PRESENTED TO RE-INTRODUCE THIS LEGISLATION SO THE CUMULATIVE PROGRESS TOWARD THIS GOAL IS REDUCED FROM 15% TO 0%.

  4. Roll back of government regulations and Executive Orders considered to be difficult for businesses. ROLL BACKS HAVE CONTINUED AND ALL BUT A FEW TRUMP NOMINEES HAVE BEEN SUCCESSFULLY CONFIRMED BY THE SENATE.  CUMULATIVE PROGRESS TOWARD GOAL: 20%

As the action happens in Washington on these 4 initiatives, don’t be surprised if the political “tug and pull” contest results in a wilder than normal stock and bond market.

We will continue to report in future issues on the progress on each initiative.

Update – Washington

The U.S. stock market has jumped since the November 8th election.  We identified 4 initiatives on which the U.S. stock market is speculating to be successfully accomplished early in the Trump administration. What will happen next? TBD

The 4 initiatives will have a tremendous influence on the “Heat Map” which forms the basis of our forward looking view of the U.S. economy.  I consider the success or failure of the 4 initiatives to be “leading” indicators for the Heat Map.

Below are the 4 Trump administration initiatives upon which the stock market is speculating and what progress, if any, has been made:

  1. Tax cuts and tax reforms benefiting most individuals and businesses- NO PROGRESS RECENTLY.  CUMULATIVE PROGRESS TOWARD GOAL: 0%

  2. Infrastructure spending of up to $1 Trillion over the upcoming 7 to 10 years.  NO PROGRESS RECENTLY.  CUMULATIVE PROGRESS TOWARD GOAL: 0%

  3. Affordable Care Act amendment, reform or reorganization. BOTH THE HOUSE AND THE SENATE TOOK THE FIRST STEPS TO REPEAL THE ACT. NO REPLACEMENT HAS BEEN FINALIZED BUT A BILL IS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH CONGRESS. CUMULATIVE PROGRESS TOWARD GOAL: 15%

  4. Roll back of government regulations and Executive Orders considered to be difficult for businesses. ROLL BACKS HAVE CONTINUED AND SEVERAL TRUMP NOMINEES HAVE BEEN SUCCESSFULLY CONFIRMED BY THE SENATE.  CUMULATIVE PROGRESS TOWARD GOAL: 15%

As the action happens in Washington on these 4 initiatives, don’t be surprised if the political “tug and pull” contest results in a wilder than normal stock and bond market.

We will continue to report in future issues on the progress on each initiative. 

Update – Washington

The U.S. stock market has jumped since the November 8th election.  We identified 4 initiatives on which the U.S. stock market is speculating to be successfully accomplished early in the Trump administration.  What will happen next?  TBD

The 4 initiatives will have a tremendous influence on the “Heat Map” which forms the basis of our forward looking view of the U.S. economy.  I consider the success or failure of the 4 initiatives to be “leading” indicators for the Heat Map.

Below are the 4 Trump administration initiatives upon which the stock market is speculating and what progress, if any, has been made:

  1. Tax cuts and tax reforms benefiting most individuals and businesses- NO PROGRESS RECENTLY. CUMULATIVE PROGRESS TOWARD GOAL: 0%

  2. Infrastructure spending of up to $1 Trillion over the upcoming 7 to 10 years. NO PROGRESS RECENTLY. CUMULATIVE PROGRESS TOWARD GOAL: 0%

  3. Affordable Care Act amendment, reform or reorganization. BOTH THE HOUSE AND THE SENATE TOOK THE FIRST STEPS TO REPEAL THE ACT. NO REPLACEMENT HAS BEEN FINALIZED. CUMULATIVE PROGRESS TOWARD GOAL: 5%

  4. Roll back of government regulations and Executive Orders considered to be difficult for businesses. ROLL BACKS HAVE CONTINUED AND SEVERAL TRUMP NOMINEES HAVE BEEN SUCCESSFULLY CONFIRMED BY THE SENATE. CUMULATIVE PROGRESS TOWARD GOAL: 10%

As the action happens in Washington on these 4 initiatives, don’t be surprised if the political “tug and pull” contest results in a wilder than normal stock and bond market.

We will continue to report in future issues on the progress on each initiative.

Update – Washington

The U.S. stock market has jumped since the November 8th election.  We identified 4 initiatives on which the U.S. stock market is speculating to be successfully accomplished early in the Trump administration.

The 4 initiatives will have a tremendous influence on the “Heat Map” which forms the basis of our forward looking view of the U.S. economy. I consider the success or failure of the 4 initiatives to be “leading” indicators for the Heat Map.

Below are the 4 Trump administration initiatives upon which the stock market is speculating and what progress, if any, has been made:

  1. Tax cuts and tax reforms benefiting most individuals and businesses- NO PROGRESS RECENTLY.  CUMULATIVE PROGRESS TOWARD GOAL: 0%

  2. Infrastructure spending of up to $1 Trillion over the upcoming 7 to 10 years.  NO PROGRESS RECENTLY.  CUMULATIVE PROGRESS TOWARD GOAL: 0%

  3. Affordable Care Act amendment, reform or reorganization. BOTH THE HOUSE AND THE SENATE TOOK THE FIRST STEPS TO REPEAL THE ACT. NO REPLACEMENT HAS BEEN FINALIZED. CUMULATIVE PROGRESS TOWARD GOAL: 5%

  4. Roll back of government regulations and Executive Orders considered to be difficult for businesses. ROLL BACKS HAVE CONTINUED AND SEVERAL TRUMP NOMINEES HAVE BEEN SUCCESSFULLY CONFIRMED BY THE SENATE.  CUMULATIVE PROGRESS TOWARD GOAL: 10%

As the action happens in Washington on these 4 initiatives, don’t be surprised if the political “tug and pull” contest results in a wilder than normal stock and bond market.

We will continue to report in future issues on the progress on each initiative. 

Update – Washington

The U.S. stock market has jumped since the November 8th election. We identified 4 initiatives on which the U.S. stock market is speculating to be successfully accomplished early in the Trump administration.

The 4 initiatives will have a tremendous influence on the “Heat Map” which forms the basis of our forward looking view of the U.S. economy. We consider the success or failure of the 4 initiatives to be “leading” indicators for the Heat Map.

Below are the 4 Trump administration initiatives upon which the stock market is speculating and what progress, if any, has been made:

  1. Tax cuts and tax reforms benefiting most individuals and businesses- NO PROGRESS RECENTLY. CUMULATIVE PROGRESS TOWARD GOAL: 0%

  2. Infrastructure spending of up to $1 Trillion over the upcoming 7 to 10 years.  NO PROGRESS RECENTLY. CUMULATIVE PROGRESS TOWARD GOAL: 0%

  3. Affordable Care Act amendment, reform or reorganization. BOTH THE HOUSE AND THE SENATE TOOK THE FIRST STEPS TO REPEAL THE ACT. NO REPLACEMENT HAS BEEN FINALIZED. CUMULATIVE PROGRESS TOWARD GOAL: 5%

  4. Roll back of government regulations and Executive Orders considered to be difficult for businesses. ROLL BACKS HAVE STARTED. CUMULATIVE PROGRESS TOWARD GOAL: 5%

As the action happens in Washington on these 4 initiatives, don’t be surprised if the political “tug and pull” contest results in a wilder than normal stock and bond market.

We will continue to report in future issues on the progress on each initiative.  

Update – Washington

The U.S. stock market has jumped since the November 8th election. Let’s identify and track the 4 initiatives upon which the U.S. stock market is speculating will be successfully accomplished early in the Trump administration.

The 4 initiatives will have a tremendous influence on the “Heat Map” which forms the basis of our forward looking view of the U.S. economy. We consider the success or failure of the 4 initiatives to be “leading” indicators for the Heat Map.

Below are the 4 Trump administration initiatives upon which the stock market is speculating and what progress, if any, has been made:

  1. Tax cuts and tax reforms benefiting most individuals and businesses- NO PROGRESS RECENTLY.  CUMULATIVE PROGRESS TOWARD GOAL: 0%

  2. Infrastructure spending of up to $1 Trillion over the upcoming 7 to 10 years.  NO PROGRESS RECENTLY.  CUMULATIVE PROGRESS TOWARD GOAL: 0%

  3. Affordable Care Act amendment, reform or reorganization. BOTH THE HOUSE AND THE SENATE TOOK THE FIRST STEPS TO REPEAL THE ACT. NO REPLACEMENT HAS BEEN FINALIZED. CUMULATIVE PROGRESS TOWARD GOAL: 5%

  4. Roll back of government regulations and Executive Orders considered to be difficult for businesses. NO PROGRESS RECENTLY.  HEARINGS AND CONGRESSIONAL APPROVAL (OR NOT) ON TRUMP APPOINTEES FORMS A LITMUS TEST FOR FUTURE EFFECTIVENESS OF THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION.  CUMULATIVE PROGRESS TOWARD GOAL: 0%

As the action happens in Washington on these 4 initiatives, don’t be surprised if the political “tug and pull” contest results in a wilder than normal stock and bond market.

We will continue to report in future issues on the progress on each initiative.

Personal Notes

We have some very sad news. Betty Adam, a longtime, trusted employee, and a friend to many, has passed away after a long battle. For 22 years at Valley National, Betty contributed in a big way to the legacy of trust on which VN has been built. She stopped in to the office just last Wednesday to give us her warmest regards, and she was in full possession of dignity and pleasantness for which we will always remember her.

Update On Washington

The U.S. stock market has jumped since the November 8th election. Let’s identify and track the 4 initiatives upon which the U.S. stock market is speculating will be successfully accomplished early in the Trump administration.

The 4 initiatives will have a tremendous influence on the “Heat Map” which forms the basis of our forward looking view of the U.S. economy.  We consider the success or failure of the 4 initiatives to be “leading” indicators for the “Heat Map.”

Below are the 4 Trump administration initiatives upon which the stock market is speculating and what progress, if any, has been made:

  1. Tax cuts and tax reforms benefiting most individuals and businesses- NO PROGRESS RECENTLY.  CUMULATIVE PROGRESS TOWARD GOAL: 0%

  2. Infrastructure spending of up to $1 Trillion over the upcoming 7 to 10 years.  NO PROGRESS RECENTLY.  CUMULATIVE PROGRESS TOWARD GOAL: 0%

  3. Affordable Care Act amendment, reform or reorganization. NO PROGRESS RECENTLY.  CUMULATIVE PROGRESS TOWARD GOAL: 0%

  4. Roll back of government regulations and Executive Orders considered to be difficult for businesses. NO PROGRESS RECENTLY.  HEARINGS AND CONGRESSIONAL APPROVAL (OR NOT) ON TRUMP APPOINTEES FORMS A LITMUS TEST FOR FUTURE EFFECTIVENESS OF THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION.  CUMULATIVE PROGRESS TOWARD GOAL: 0%

As the action happens in Washington on these 4 initiatives, don’t be surprised if the political “tug and pull” contest results in a wilder than normal stock and bond market.

We will continue to report in future issues on the progress on each initiative.