Daily Archives: October 15, 2019

VNFA NEWS

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We are pleased to announce the promotion of Jessica Goedtel, CFP® to the position of Assistant Vice President / Financial Advisor.

Jessica has been part of our team since 2016 helping clients with comprehensive financial planning, including tax, insurance and corporate benefits. She joined VNFA with several years of experience in the financial services industry and has continued developed her skills through our firm’s Entry Level Professional (ELP) program. The ELP program is specifically designed to prepare the next generation of financial advisors at VNFA with key skills and knowledge.

“Jessica received her Certified Financial PlannerTM Professional designation in 2018 and has completed all levels of our firm’s ELP development standards,” says CEO Matthew Petrozelli. “She has been and will continue to be a valuable part of our professional advisory team in this new capacity as a full-time financial advisor.”

Jessica can be reached at jgoedtel@valleynationalgroup.com or 610-868-9000 x127. Get to know Jessica.

The Markets This Week

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by Connor Darrell CFA, Assistant Vice President – Head of Investments
Most of last week’s action took place on Friday, when the first signs of meaningful progress toward an eventual trade resolution between the U.S. and China broke into the news cycle. Markets rallied in reaction to the announcement from President Trump that he and Chinese officials arrived at an agreement for China to resume purchases of U.S. agricultural products and to begin addressing issues related to intellectual capital. Ultimately however, many were quick to point out that while the progress is a sign that the two sides are willing to work with one another, this first phase of an agreement is far from a finished product and does not address the most pressing issues that face negotiators; many of which are related to technology, cybersecurity, and intellectual property theft.

The positive sentiment from the trade front pushed a sense of optimism through financial markets and helped to steepen the yield curve, which led to negative returns in the bond market. With the economic calendar dormant this coming week, most of the market’s focus will remain on geopolitical concerns like trade and Brexit negotiations, as well as the beginning of Q3 corporate earnings season, which could provide investors with a better glimpse into how the recent slowdown in manufacturing has impacted corporate profits.

We provide our perspective on many of the above issues in our most recent quarterly commentary, which is available on our website – valleynationalgroup.com/Q32019

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

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THE NUMBERS
Sources: Index Returns: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized excluding dividends. Interest Rates: Federal Reserve, Freddie Mac

U.S. ECONOMIC HEAT MAP
The health of the U.S. economy is a key driver of long-term returns in the stock market. Below, we grade 5 key economic conditions that we believe are of particular importance to investors.

CONSUMER SPENDING

A

Our consumer spending grade remains an A. Surveys of US consumers continue to indicate that the consumer is in a strong position, and recent GDP data provided further evidence of healthy consumer spending.

FED POLICIES

A-

Our Fed Policies grade has been increased to A- after the Federal Reserve cut its interest rate target by 25 bps following its most recent meeting. This marks the second time the Fed has cut interest rates in the past few months, but Chairman Jerome Powell hinted that he does not expect “a more extensive series of rate cuts” moving forward.

BUSINESS PROFITABILITY

B-

Q3 corporate earnings season begins soon, with many experts predicting negative growth for the quarter as a result of more sluggish global economic growth. The strength of corporate profits in Q3 will provide investors with a glimpse into how the recent slowdown in manufacturing may have impacted US companies.

EMPLOYMENT

A

The US economy added 136,000 new jobs in September, below the consensus expectations of analysts. However, despite the lower than expected job creation, there was evidence of an acceleration of wage growth. The labor market continues to look quite healthy.

INFLATION

A

Inflation is often a sign of “tightening” in the economy, and can be a signal that growth is peaking. Recent inflationary data has increased slightly, but inflation remains benign at this time, which bodes well for the extension of the economic cycle.

OTHER CONCERNS

INTERNATIONAL RISKS

7

Following a re-escalation of the US/China trade dispute, we have raised our “international risks” metric back to a 7. Other key areas of focus for markets include the ongoing Brexit negotiations, rising economic nationalism around the globe, and escalating tensions in the Middle East.

The “Heat Map” is a subjective analysis based upon metrics that VNFA’s investment committee believes are important to financial markets and the economy. The “Heat Map” is designed for informational purposes only and is not intended for use as a basis for investment decisions.

“Your Financial Choices”

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The show airs on WDIY Wednesday evenings, from 6-7 p.m. The show is hosted by Valley National’s Laurie Siebert CPA, CFP®, AEP®.

This week is WDIY’s annual Fall Membership Drive, which includes a partnership with Valley National Financial Advisors. For every $100 raised during the Membership Drive, VNFA will provide Second Harvest Food Bank of the Lehigh Valley with the funds to deliver 21 meals to families and individuals in need in the Lehigh Valley.

Laurie will be on the air between breaks to address your general financial questions at 610-758-8810 or in advance via yourfinancialchoices.com/contactlaurie.

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT!
Listen to Laurie’s discussion last week with Dan Banks addressing Your Medicare Questions.

Recordings of past shows are available to listen or download at both yourfinancialchoices.com and wdiy.org.