“Wherever you go, no matter the weather, always bring your own sunshine.” – Anthony J. D’Angelo
Author Archives: The Weekly Commentary
VNFA NEWS
Valley National Financial Advisors is pleased to partner with WDIY 88.1 FM Lehigh Valley Public Radio for their annual Spring Membership Drive to provide food relief to those in need. VNFA is matching a portion of each donation WDIY receives so that every $100 raised will provide 15 meals to Second Harvest Food Bank of the Lehigh Valley.
VNFA has partnered with WDIY each year since 2017 to benefit Second Harvest, and in that time, has helped provide a total of over 100,000 meals!
To support WDIY and Second Harvest with one donation, you can make a contribution to the Spring Membership Drive by calling 610-758-8810 or giving online at wdiy.org.
Current Market Observations
Geopolitical tensions combined with updates on labor markets fueled a volatile week of trading in both stocks and bonds. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -2.3% for the week, the S&P 500 Index fell –1.0%, and the NASDAQ fell -0.8%. Energy was the best-performing sector for the week (+2.8%), while Health Care was the worst-performing sector (-3.9%). First-quarter earnings season begins this week with the large-cap banks. JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup will report results this Friday. As the “higher for longer” feeling sunk into the fixed-income markets, traders reacted by selling bonds, and as a result, the 10-year Treasury rose 18 basis points to close the week at 4.39.
U.S. Economy
Strong economic results raised overall concerns about the Federal Reserve rate cut timeline. The week ended positively with a robust jobs report indicating a healthy labor market, low unemployment, and steady wage growth, easing inflation worries. Despite concern over Fed actions, markets closed with optimism, interpreting the jobs report as a sign of continued economic and corporate growth. We continue to closely monitor the price of oil, which surged to a six-month high on Friday. A sustained upward trend in oil prices could reignite inflationary pressures, complicating Federal Reserve efforts to manage inflation. See the chart below from Trading Economics, which shows Crude Oil prices over the last year.
Policy and Politics
Over the weekend, news of the Israeli military’s withdrawal of ground troops from the Gaza Strip sparked optimism. This comes as Egypt offers to host a new round of talks aimed at reaching a ceasefire and hostage release deal. Both Israel and Hamas have agreed to participate. Over the last week, Russian drone attacks in Kharkiv intensified last week, causing casualties and damage. National polls indicate a continued tight race with President Biden and former President Trump neck-and-neck as Democrats claim a significant fundraising lead over Republicans.
Economic Numbers to Watch This Week
- U.S. Consumer Price Index for March 2024, prior 0.4%
- Minutes of Fed’s March FOMC meeting.
- U.S. Producer Price Index for March 2024, prior 0.6%
- U.S. Import Price Index for March 2024, prior 0.3%
Last week, several Federal Reserve presidents provided updates, reinforcing the view that the economy continues to perform well. We look forward to updates from multiple large banking institutions later this week, which should provide valuable data points on the banking industry and economy. As more companies start releasing their earnings in the upcoming weeks, we will be listening for indications of improved sales and earnings growth across a wider spectrum of businesses beyond the dominant mega-cap tech stocks. Geopolitics will continue to be a risk that could derail the otherwise healthy macroeconomic outlook. Please reach out to your advisor at Valley National Financial Advisors with any questions.
“Your Financial Choices” Radio
Tune in Wednesday, 6 PM, “Your Financial Choices” on WDIY 88.1 FM. Laurie will be discussing: Family Matters – In More Ways Than One.
Questions can be submitted to yourfinancialchoices.com before the live show. Recordings of past shows are available to listen to or download at yourfinancialchoices.com and wdiy.org.
Did you miss the last show, First Quarter 2024 Market Review with Bill Henderson, Chief Investment Officer at Valley National Financial Advisors? Listen Here
The Numbers & “Heat Map”
MARKET HEAT MAP
The health of the U.S. economy is a key driver of long-term returns in the stock market. Below, we grade key economic conditions that we believe are of particular importance to investors.
The “Heat Map” is a subjective analysis based upon metrics that VNFA’s investment committee believes are important to financial markets and the economy. The “Heat Map” is designed for informational purposes only and is not intended for use as a basis for investment decisions.
Quote of the Week
“Intuition is the mere thing that grounds us, we must never lose sight of it. After all, it is the outcome of life” -Lisbeth Brito
Did You Know…?
April is National Stress Awareness Month, a time to raise awareness of the adverse effects of stress.
During this month, the primary goal is to shine a spotlight on the detrimental effects that stress can have on individuals. It serves as an opportunity to educate and inform people about the various negative impacts of stress on physical and mental well-being.
This is the time to encourage individuals to become more mindful of their stress levels and provide resources and support for managing stress effectively. The management of stress is a fundamental element of maintaining a healthy lifestyle. To learn more about National Stress Awareness Month, visit the National Institutes of Health.
Current Market Observations
Markets were mixed on a holiday-shortened trading week, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.8%, the S&P 500 Index increasing by 0.4%, and the NASDAQ falling -0.3%. Utilities were the best-performing sector for the week (+2.9%), while information technology was the worst-performing sector (-1.3%). Oil prices continued to move higher, finishing the week with a 3.2% gain. Friday saw the Fed’s preferred gauge for inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index, rise 0.3% (excluding food & energy), matching economists’ expectations. The 10-year Treasury saw continued buying last week, pushing yields down four bps for the week, finishing at 4.21%.
U.S. Economy
Although last week was a quiet week for economic releases, on Friday, we saw the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation, U.S. Core Monthly and Yearly PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) for February, and both measures were lower, signaling that inflation continues to fall, see Chart 1 below from Valley National Financial Advisors and Y Charts shows U.S. Core Monthly and Yearly PCE for five years. Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Jerome Powell has stated very clearly that they are watching the inflation data and will be data-dependent in terms of rate movements. The current Fed has been the most transparent we can remember regarding interest rate movements, which is why we do not expect any rate cuts until well into the second half of 2024, and even then, those movements in rates, if any, will be mild and data dependent.
This week, we will see numbers for new payrolls and unemployment insurance for March 2024, and companies will start to prepare for 1st Q EPS reports. Otherwise, we will have a quiet week regarding economic releases.
Policy and Politics
Last week saw a holiday-shortened week for Washington, with Good Friday on March 29th. Elevated geopolitical tensions persist amid the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine war. U.S.-China trade tensions continue to be elevated with recent news of China’s oversupply of solar energy, electric vehicles, and lithium-ion batteries impacting U.S. producers. President Biden trails former President Trump by around two points in national polling and around three points in swing states. Prediction markets show roughly even odds of a Democratic or Republican win.
Economic Numbers to Watch This Week
- U.S. ISM manufacturing for March 2024, prior to 47.8
- U.S. Factory Orders for February 2024, prior –3.6%
- U.S. Job Openings for February 2024, prior to 8.9 million
- U.S. ADP Employment for March 2024, prior 140,000
- U.S. ISM Services for March 2024, prior 52.6
- U.S. Employment Report for March 2024
- Nonfarm payrolls, prior 275,000
- Unemployment rate prior 3.9%
Updates from Federal Reserve Board Members continue highlighting lower inflation readings, improved outlook for GDP growth in coming quarters, and healthy job growth. Markets appear to be warming to the idea that stronger growth for longer is preferred over lower rates. We are encouraged by signs of housing supply improvement, which should help this year’s spring selling season. As earnings season kicks off in the coming weeks, we will be listening to any signs of economic softness communicated by corporate management teams. We continue to monitor geopolitical risks for signs of increased tension and spillover into new areas. Please reach out to your advisor at Valley National Financial Advisors with any questions.
“Your Financial Choices” Radio
Tune in Wednesday, 6 PM, “Your Financial Choices” on WDIY 88.1 FM. Laurie and her guest Bill Henderson, Chief Investment Officer at Valley National Financial Advisors will be discussing: First Quarter 2024 Market Review.
Questions can be submitted to yourfinancialchoices.com before the live show. Recordings of past shows are available to listen to or download at yourfinancialchoices.com and wdiy.org.
Did you miss the last show, Random Thoughts on Financial Topics? Listen Here
The Numbers & “Heat Map”
MARKET HEAT MAP
The health of the U.S. economy is a key driver of long-term returns in the stock market. Below, we grade key economic conditions that we believe are of particular importance to investors.
The “Heat Map” is a subjective analysis based upon metrics that VNFA’s investment committee believes are important to financial markets and the economy. The “Heat Map” is designed for informational purposes only and is not intended for use as a basis for investment decisions.